The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tianfeng International released a research report on the light industry manufacturing industry, saying that focusing on interest rate cuts will bring about a post-cycle recovery in US real estate+the release of inventory replenishment+ durable goods exchange cycle will be + cross-border e-commerce catalysts, and continues to recommend Henglin (603661.SH), Lego (300729.SZ), Zhiou Technology (301376.SZ), and Ingenious Home (301061.SZ). Additionally, it is recommended to focus on Yongyi Co., Ltd. (603600.SH), Jiayi Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ), Dream Lily (603313.SH), and Qisheng Technology (603610.SH).

Tianfeng International's main views are as follows:

Interest rate cuts are expected to bring about a recovery in US real estate sales, and we are optimistic about our domestic export chain.

Existing home sales in the US are negatively correlated with the interest rate environment. Currently, residents' ability to buy homes is at a historically low level, and we expect housing demand to be delayed. The current decline in inflation is compounded by the Federal Reserve's changing attitude. Expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut continue to heat up, and interest rates on 30-year US mortgages have now declined. We expect that with the arrival of the interest rate cut cycle in '24, housing sales are expected to bottom up, which may drive the recovery of China's home export industry chain.

Overseas demand is resilient, inventory removal is nearing its end, and seizing structural stock replenishment opportunities

In November, the US household inventory ratio in various channels was below its historical rank. The retail sales growth rate changed from negative to positive, and consumer demand was still resilient. We believe that 24 is expected to usher in structural inventory replenishment. Among them, the performance of various circuit segments is divided. Among them, durable household goods are expected to benefit from the renewal cycle+real estate catalyst, demand for thermos cups continues to be optimistic, and the gap in replenishment time is expected to bring structural opportunities.

Independent brands go overseas and enjoy the dividends of the cross-border e-commerce boom

According to iResearch, home furnishings, outdoor goods, etc. are the core categories of China's cross-border e-commerce exports. Light industry export chain leaders have successively used supply chain advantages to achieve brands going overseas. We expect exporters to continue to benefit from leading platform concessions and traffic dividends from emerging platforms in a competitive environment. Furthermore, overseas warehouses are an important infrastructure for cross-border e-commerce, and we believe that overseas companies that lay out/cooperate with overseas warehouses in advance can be expected to lock in the advantage of low-cost resources and further improve their profit level.

Investment advice

Focus on interest rate cuts to bring about a post-cycle recovery in US real estate+release of demand for restocking+durable goods replacement cycle approach+ cross-border e-commerce catalysis. We will continue to recommend Henglin Co., Ltd., Lego Co., Ltd., Zhi European Technology, and Ingenious Home. In addition, it is recommended to focus on Yongyi Co., Ltd., Jiayi Co., Ltd. (joint coverage with Home Appliance Group), Dream Lily, and Qisheng Technology.

Risk warning:

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut fell short of expectations, the recovery in overseas demand fell short of expectations, the recovery in US real estate sales fell short of expectations, the rise in shipping costs, the construction of overseas warehouses fell short of expectations, etc.