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The Five-year Earnings Decline Is Not Helping Zhongyu Energy Holdings' (HKG:3633 Share Price, as Stock Falls Another 5.9% in Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 8 17:41

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Zhongyu Energy Holdings Limited (HKG:3633) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 21% over a half decade. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 5.9%.

After losing 5.9% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Zhongyu Energy Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Zhongyu Energy Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 27% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 5% compound annual share price fall. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline. The high P/E ratio of 76.90 suggests that shareholders believe earnings will grow in the years ahead.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:3633 Earnings Per Share Growth January 8th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Zhongyu Energy Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Zhongyu Energy Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Zhongyu Energy Holdings' TSR of was a loss of 16% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Although it hurts that Zhongyu Energy Holdings returned a loss of 6.6% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 13%. Given the total loss of 3% per year over five years, it seems returns have deteriorated in the last twelve months. While some investors do well specializing in buying companies that are struggling (but nonetheless undervalued), don't forget that Buffett said that 'turnarounds seldom turn'. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Zhongyu Energy Holdings (including 2 which are a bit concerning) .

Zhongyu Energy Holdings is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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