When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may consider Texas Pacific Land Corporation (NYSE:TPL) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.4x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Texas Pacific Land has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for Texas Pacific Land
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Texas Pacific Land's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.3%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 98% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 7.0% as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 9.9%, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it concerning that Texas Pacific Land is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of Texas Pacific Land's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Texas Pacific Land with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If you're unsure about the strength of Texas Pacific Land's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.