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Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Garmin Ltd.'s (NYSE:GRMN) Shares

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 8 08:51

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.6x Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:GRMN) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Garmin has been doing quite well of late. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Garmin

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:GRMN Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry January 8th 2024
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Garmin.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Garmin's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 8.4%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 9.6% per year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Garmin's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Bottom Line On Garmin's P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Garmin currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

The company's balance sheet is another key area for risk analysis. Our free balance sheet analysis for Garmin with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Garmin, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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