It's not a stretch to say that Murphy USA Inc.'s (NYSE:MUSA) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Murphy USA has been very sluggish. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Murphy USA
How Is Murphy USA's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Murphy USA's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 12%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 97% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.1% per annum over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that Murphy USA's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Final Word
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Murphy USA's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Murphy USA that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.