The Kerry Logistics Network Limited (HKG:636) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 35% in the last twelve months.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Kerry Logistics Network's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 9x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Kerry Logistics Network as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to revert back to market averages soon, which has kept the P/E from falling. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Kerry Logistics Network
Is There Some Growth For Kerry Logistics Network?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Kerry Logistics Network would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 67%. As a result, earnings from three years ago have also fallen 27% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 1.8% per year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15% per year, which paints a poor picture.
With this information, we find it concerning that Kerry Logistics Network is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Kerry Logistics Network's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/E level with the market. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Kerry Logistics Network's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings are unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Kerry Logistics Network, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Kerry Logistics Network, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.