With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.5x Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 32x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Magnolia Oil & Gas has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas
Is There Any Growth For Magnolia Oil & Gas?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Magnolia Oil & Gas' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 37%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 11% as estimated by the twelve analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10.0% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that Magnolia Oil & Gas' P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Final Word
While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Magnolia Oil & Gas' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Having said that, be aware Magnolia Oil & Gas is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is potentially serious.
You might be able to find a better investment than Magnolia Oil & Gas. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.