The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2024, policy effects are expected to continue to accumulate, the development of the FCEV and green hydrogen industry chains is expected to accelerate, and industry expectations are expected to be repaired. According to estimates of the hydrogen energy medium- to long-term development plan goals, the hydrogen energy vehicle industry chain market size is expected to double continuously in 2024/2025. Emerging applications of green hydrogen will gradually be implemented or driven to achieve a CAGR of 75% in demand for electrolyzers from 2025 to 2030. At the same time, the advantages of the domestic manufacturing industry are expected to help equipment companies to go overseas on a large scale in 2024.

▍ The main views of CITIC Securities are as follows:

Perspective 1.

The first round of subsidies for fuel cell demonstration applications is expected to be distributed one after another, or help accelerate the development of the vehicle industry chain. The subsidy system is also expected to be richer in the future. Apart from the hydrogen vehicle industry chain, the green hydrogen subsidy policy may be implemented at an accelerated pace.

Outlook 2.

Domestic fuel cell vehicle sales are expected to exceed 10,000 units in 2024, and the target of 50,000 vehicles in the policy plan may be achieved in 2025, which is expected to double for two consecutive years.

Outlook 3.

By combining large-scale substitution with domestic production, the average annual cost reduction of fuel cell systems over the next three years may exceed 15%.

Outlook 4.

Fuel cell heavy trucks are still the most promising FCEV model at present. Vehicle costs are expected to drop by 30% in 2025, and gradually achieve parity with fuel heavy trucks from 2025 to 2030.

Outlook 5.

The operating cost of the green hydrogen project may be further reduced in 2024, and the cost of the advantageous project is expected to be less than 25 yuan/kg.

Outlook 6.

The project plan is gradually being implemented. Domestic electrolyzer demand may exceed 3.75 GW in 2024, the growth rate may be close to 90%, and the CAGR is expected to reach 75% from 2025 to 2030.

Outlook 7.

Under the demand for carbon reduction, green hydrogen application models are more diverse, and hydrogen-based green fuels such as green methanol may open up new markets. Green hydrogen demand corresponding to green shipping methanol may be CAGR close to 60% from 2025 to 2030

Outlook 8.

The volume of electrolyzers and fuel cells will drive demand for related materials. Demand for key materials may reach a CAGR of 84% in the next three years.

Outlook 9.

Hydrogen fueling stations are expected to be built moderately ahead of schedule in 2024, and the number of integrated hydrogen generation-hydrogenation stations may gradually increase. More than 200 hydrogen fueling stations will be built in China throughout the year, and the number of hydrogen fueling stations may exceed 600; the number of hydrogen fueling stations is expected to exceed 1,000 in 2025.

Outlook 10.

The number of enterprises in the hydrogen energy industry chain going overseas has increased, mainly electrolyzer equipment, energy chemical engineering companies, the Middle East, Australia, the European Union or target regions.

risk factors.

The operation of green hydrogen projects is unstable, affecting industry expansion and demand for electrolyzers; fuel cell material costs are falling short of expectations; implementation of industrial support policies is slower than expected; production and sales of hydrogen energy vehicles fall short of expectations.