share_log

FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) Surges 43% Yet Its Low P/S Is No Reason For Excitement

Simply Wall St ·  Jan 4 07:42

FibroGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGEN) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 43% after a shaky period beforehand. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 96% share price drop in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, FibroGen may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x, since almost half of all companies in the Biotechs industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 12.6x and even P/S higher than 53x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Check out our latest analysis for FibroGen

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:FGEN Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry January 4th 2024

What Does FibroGen's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Recent times haven't been great for FibroGen as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this lacklustre revenue performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on FibroGen will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as FibroGen's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 26% last year. As a result, it also grew revenue by 30% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 10% each year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 240% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's understandable that FibroGen's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.

The Bottom Line On FibroGen's P/S

FibroGen's recent share price jump still sees fails to bring its P/S alongside the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

As we suspected, our examination of FibroGen's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior revenue outlook is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for FibroGen (2 are a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment