The Zhitong Finance App learned that on January 3, Clarkson Research released a research report on the impact assessment of the Red Sea situation on the shipping market. Since the Red Sea attacks occurred, the container ship market has been significantly affected. By the end of December, the spot freight rate on the Shanghai-Nordic route had risen to 2,694 US dollars/TEU, three times that of the beginning of December; at the same time, the freight rate on the Shanghai-East/West US route had increased by about 50%. Although the Shanghai-Nordic route is still about 65% lower than the peak of 7,800 US dollars/day in early 2022, the “extreme” freight rate, excluding the impact of the pandemic, has now reached the highest level in history. The impact of the Red Sea situation on other segments of the ship market is limited, but some local impacts are still significant. For example, in the tanker market, freight rates for Afula tankers on trans-Mediterranean routes have risen.

On January 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European line) rose to 2300, about 2.5 times that of early December. Since December 20, the index curve has shown a long-term balance. Currently, the 04 contract index is 75% higher than the 24-12 contract.

Clarkson's research indicates that in recent weeks, attacks by the Yemeni Houthis against ships passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden have been escalating. It is known that currently at least 22 ships (totaling 1.5 million gross tons) have been attacked in the region, up from 16 ships (totaling 1.2 million gross tons) recorded on December 20. According to reports, a ship was attacked near the Arabian Sea (200 nautical miles off the west coast of India) in late December.

The international community stepped up countermeasures, and the “Guardians of Prosperity” joint maritime force, led by the United States, was launched at the end of December. Currently, however, the operation has received limited support, and at the same time, some countries have voluntarily dispatched warships to the Red Sea region to participate in escorts.

Although in late December, some major container liner companies announced plans to gradually resume transportation through the Red Sea (including Maersk and Dafei), subsequent attacks on ships caused plans to resume navigation through the Red Sea to be suspended again. For example, on January 2, 2024, Maersk once again announced the suspension of transportation through the Red Sea, while Hapag-Lloyd decided to continue avoiding Red Sea routes for at least a week (until January 9).

The number of ships that choose to circumvent the Red Sea is still increasing, and the container ship market is particularly affected. Since records began in mid-late November, a total of about 309 container ships (4 million TEU in total) chose to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope, an increase of nearly 1 times over the 155 ships recorded on December 21 (1.9 million TEU in total).

High-frequency data from Clarkson's research can quantitatively track changes in the number of ships entering the Gulf of Aden. The data shows that the number of ships entering the region continues to decline. The average daily gross tonnage value of all ships entering the region fell to 2.4 million gross tons from December 29 to January 2, only 50% of the average for the first half of December, a record low (basically continuing the recent trend, similar to the 43% drop from December 17 to 20). The downward trend of container ships was most obvious. The average tonnage fell 79% during the same period, down 82% from December 17-20; LPG carriers, LNG carriers, and automobile carriers decreased by 67%, 61%, and 38%, respectively. The downward trend for oil tankers and bulk carriers is more moderate. Records began in the middle and late stages. A total of about 309 container ships (4 million TEU in total) chose to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope, an increase of nearly 1 times over the 155 ships recorded on December 21 (1.9 million TEU in total).

According to Clarkson's research statistics, the actual transit volume of the Suez Canal showed the same downward trend. The total transit volume of the Suez Canal from December 28 to January 1 was 2.7 million tons, down 38% from the average for the first half of December. Among them, northbound transit volume decreased by 45% and southbound by 31%. By ship segment, transit volume of container ships, LPG carriers, motor carriers and LNG carriers decreased by 72%, 60%, 49%, and 35%, respectively, while the overall transit volume of bulk carriers and tankers was similar to the level in December of previous years.