The Zhitong Finance App learned that Debon Securities released a research report saying that based on data such as China's new PV installed capacity from January to November and SolarPower Europe forecasts, it is estimated that the world's new PV installations are expected to reach 400 GW in 23 and exceed 480 GW in 24. The new PV installed capacity in China is expected to reach 170 GW in 23 years and 230 GW overseas. As prices in the photovoltaic industry chain gradually bottomed out, domestic prices are expected to exceed 170 GW and overseas to exceed 310 GW in 24. The PV sector has gone through this round of correction, and the current valuation is in the bottom range of nearly ten years. The price-earnings ratio of the Wind PV Industry Index was 18.7 on December 4, 2023, at the 0.00% quantile in the past three years, 0.00% in the past five years, and 0.00% in the past ten years. Overall, it is at the bottom level of the photovoltaic industry. The focus is on recommending the middle and downstream parts of the industrial chain and key auxiliary materials.

▍ The main views of Debon Securities are as follows:

Domestic PV installed capacity was 142.56 GW in the first 10 months of 2023, an increase of 144.78% over the previous year, exceeding the total PV installed capacity in '22.

According to Gantan Technology's official account, from January to October 2023, China added 142.56 GW of PV installed capacity, an increase of 144.78% over the previous year; judging from the monthly installed capacity situation, the monthly PV installed capacity in '23 was above 10GW. If the last 2 months of '23 remained at the level of October, or the average of the previous 10 months, then China's new PV installed capacity is expected to reach 170-172 GW in '23. Compared with the new PV installations in previous years, the installed capacity in 23 will be the highest in history.

The proportion of new domestic centralized photovoltaics connected to the grid in the first three quarters was significantly higher than that of household photovoltaics and industrial and commercial photovoltaics.

From January to September, the total additional grid-connected capacity of PV reached 128.94 GW. On a quarterly basis, distributed photovoltaic installations in the first three quarters all surpassed centralized photovoltaics, but the proportion of the new distributed grid-connected capacity reached 52.07%. Among them, household PV added 32.98 GW of grid-connected capacity, accounting for 25.58% of the new grid-connected capacity; industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaics added 34.16 GW of grid-connected capacity, accounting for 26.49% of the new grid-connected capacity; terrestrial power plants added 61.79 GW of grid-connected capacity, accounting for 47.92% of the new grid-connected capacity.

Export values declined year-on-year in the second half of the year under the trend of price reduction in the industrial chain.

According to China Customs and the official account of Qantan Technology, in the first 10 months of 2023, China's photovoltaic product export value was 43.766 billion US dollars, compared with the export value of 44.913 billion US dollars in the first 10 months of 2022, a decrease of 2.55% over the previous year. On a quarterly basis, the export value of photovoltaic products in the first half of '23 was US$29.412 billion, up 11.44% year-on-year compared with the export value of US$26.392 billion in the first half of 2022, while in July-October '23, the export value was 14.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.50% compared to the same period in 2022.

The export value of inverters showed similar characteristics. The export value in the first half of 2023 was 6.15 billion US dollars, up 95.18% year on year compared with the export value of 3.151 billion US dollars in the same period of 2022, while the export value from July to October 23 was 2,653 billion US dollars, down 29.42% year on year compared to 3.759 billion US dollars in the same period in '22. Overall, the export value of inverters was US$8.803 billion from January to October '23, compared with US$6.91 billion for the same period in '22, an increase of 27.40% over the previous year.

In the first three quarters of 2023, due to price fluctuations in the industrial chain, various links in the photovoltaic industry chain were divided.

A sample representative company composition was selected from various links in the industrial chain to review the market situation in the first three quarters. The sample company achieved operating income of 663.86 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 19.26% year on year, and achieved net profit of 75.539 billion yuan, up 4.3% year on year. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 225.175 billion yuan, up 2.12% year on year, and realized net profit of 20.035 billion yuan, down 34.55% year on year.

The overall downstream performance of the industrial chain was superior to that of the upstream industry chain. Among the sample stocks participating in the statistics, the net profit from the silicon material and silicon wafer chain all declined in Q1-Q3 in 23. Looking at the single quarter, net profit from the silicon chain fell 75.31% year on year, and the net profit from the silicon wafer chain fell 28.48% year on year. Net profit from the battery sector in Q1-Q3 increased 35.77% year on year, but fell 27.14% year on year in 23Q3. The component and inverter sector performed well, with growth in the first three quarters. However, in the adhesive film sector, net profit from 23Q1-Q3 fell year-on-year due to lower prices of raw materials and pressure from component companies.

Risk warning:

Terminal demand falls short of expectations; industry policy impacts; international trade risks.