The Zhitong Finance App learned that on December 29, 2023, China Merchants Fund Chief Research Officer Zhu Hongyu and China Merchants Fund Zhai Xiangdong anticipated investment in 2024 during a live broadcast. Zhu Hongyu pointed out that judging from the endogenous situation of the economy itself, the volume price and inventory indicators in 2023 are much better than at the end of 2022, because they are basically in the bottom zone. Moreover, capital expenditure and ongoing construction in some industries have reached a very low point, which means that the supply and demand relationship is likely to improve in the future. Over the past two to three years, the real estate industry has also experienced a very rapid and drastic adjustment. It is possible that in two or three years, our country will complete the adjustment process that takes 5 to 10 years, or even longer, in some countries and regions.

Therefore, judging from the perspective of the economy itself, 2023 will be much better than 2022, and 2024 should have a chance of stabilizing or even repairing the bottom. China's own digestion of valuations, digestion of chips, and digestion of chip structures are much better than three years ago and last year.

Looking at all dimensions, whether it is the location of the economy, the structure of chips, or all levels of market expectations, 2024 is likely to be good, or even exceed everyone's expectations. Whether it's Hong Kong stocks or A shares, 2024 may surprise everyone.

Zhai Xiangdong believes that the layout of the science and technology sector in 2024 should be carried out using two ideas. Using long-term ideas to make the layout is a good time point.

The first area we can focus on is procyclically-related, that is, companies in these technological growth industries that are less related to AI and this round of innovation, because it itself has a strong beta (connection) with the economy.

Whether it's electronics or computers, they are upstream in all walks of life. If everyone is optimistic about the economic outlook, these companies will have a double-click opportunity to improve their performance and repair their valuations.

Representatives of this category include analog chips, memory chips, and some MCUs in chips. Including computers, many downstream industries may have difficulties in the short term. Related companies such as medical care and finance are all a good time to extend long-term configurations, and this is a long-term layout opportunity on the left.

The second is that the industry has performed well in 2023, and then there will be many marginal changes in 2024. Typical of these industries are software and hardware companies represented by AI.

Looking at it on a one-year basis until 2024, Zhai Xiangdong's preference is for these ecological vertical companies that can actually find some monetization methods and solve the pain points of some customers in 2024. This is worth investing in.

What is really scarce is whether the original main business can be well integrated with AI technology to solve customer pain points and improve product functionality. This is where companies have real investment value and real potential for growth under future business logic.

Zhai Xiangdong feels that under this general trend, the value of platform-based companies that can be well integrated with AI in the future and that their products themselves have great user recognition and industry concentration in the vertical category will be restructured. Therefore, for 2024, AI applications have entered a direction of focus in their investment business.

Other hardware-oriented companies are likely to be quite full in 2023. However, in 2024, it can actually enter the trend of valuation expansion, and then there is also a relatively large company that is resilient. Zhai Xiangdong thinks it is quite difficult to find. In other words, it is relatively difficult for these companies to achieve relatively large excess profits in 2024.