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马士基“不敢复航”,美国“红海护航”行不行?航运龙头股价大涨

Maersk “doesn't dare to resume sailing”; can the US “escort the Red Sea” work? The stock price of leading shipping companies soared

wallstreetcn ·  Jan 3 02:15

Source: Wall Street News

Shipping giant Maersk said that the company will continue to suspend all shipping through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and the specific resumption time will be announced separately.

The situation in the global shipping market is still not optimistic.

On Tuesday (January 2) local time, Maersk, the world's second-largest container shipping company, said that the company will continue to suspend all shipping through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and the specific resumption time will be announced separately.

Two days ago, the Maersk “Hangzhou” was attacked twice while sailing in the Red Sea. Maersk later announced that it would be suspended from crossing the Red Sea for 48 hours.

Supported by freight rates, shipping companies' stock prices soared

Maersk's latest statement on Tuesday said:

“Investigations into this incident are ongoing, and we will continue to suspend all shipments of goods through the region while further evaluating the evolving situation. If necessary, the ship will be re-routed and continue to bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.”

According to CCTV News, quoting the US Command, on December 31, 2023, local time, the Singaporean flag Maersk “Hangzhou” container ship sent a distress call twice in less than 24 hours. The ship reported being attacked by 4 Yemeni Houthi dinghies in the southern waters of the Red Sea. The US military dispatched helicopters, sank 3 small boats and killed some of the attackers; the remaining one dinghy escaped. A Houthi spokesman later said that 10 members had died or disappeared.

Notably, it's only been a week since Maersk resumed its Red Sea route. On December 24, 2023, with the implementation of the “Operation Guardians of Prosperity” initiative led by the United States, Maersk announced preparations to resume routes through the Red Sea and is preparing plans for the first batch of ships to pass as soon as the operation is feasible. Maersk also mentioned earlier that although safety measures are currently in place to ensure that ships can pass through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the overall risk in the region has not been eliminated at this stage.

In order to avoid risks, a number of international shipping companies have decided to stop flights or make detours. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd also said on January 2 that due to recent events, the company's ships will continue to sail near the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa until the 9th of this month, when they will once again judge the situation in the Red Sea.

Some analysts pointed out that if the crisis spills out further, shipowners may have only two options: waiting in line for Panamanian navigation or detour to the Cape of Good Hope. Capacity turnover efficiency will decrease, and off-season freight rates may receive some support. Affected by this, shipping stocks surged on Tuesday. Maersk US stocks rose more than 7%, Hapag-Lloyd rose 3.26%, and Frontline Shipping rose 0.55%.

Is America's “Red Sea Escort” OK?

The Red Sea crisis has been slow to resolve; so far, it has affected trade worth 225 billion US dollars. Freight forwarding company Kuehne+Nagel said that about 330 ships were affected, with a total capacity estimated at 4.5 million containers.

Global trade data provider Kpler said that the number of ships choosing to avoid the Red Sea Bypass this week jumped from 55 last week to 124, compared to just 18 a month ago.

Jean-Charles Gordon, Kpler's director of ship tracking, said:

“Our analysis of vessel traffic through the Strait of Mander shows that both northbound and southbound vessels are showing a continuous downward trend.”

This series of data makes people question the effectiveness of the Red Sea escort operation initiated by the United States.

According to a Xinhua News Agency report, it has been about ten days since the US announced the formation of the Red Sea Convoy Alliance, yet many allies are unwilling to publicly announce their participation, or even get involved at all. The US claims that more than 20 countries have joined the Red Sea escort operation codenamed “Guardians of Prosperity,” but only 12 countries are listed on the list, and at least 8 countries are unwilling to acknowledge participation.

Some of the so-called “contributions” of the US allies to the convoy alliance are simply sending a few staff officers.

Retired US Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery said that in order to achieve results, the Red Sea Task Force will also require extensive naval coordination.

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