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Tian Lun Gas Holdings (HKG:1600) Earnings and Shareholder Returns Have Been Trending Downwards for the Last Three Years, but the Stock Surges 24% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 29, 2023 17:39

This week we saw the Tian Lun Gas Holdings Limited (HKG:1600) share price climb by 24%. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 42% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$795m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Tian Lun Gas Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, Tian Lun Gas Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 15% each year. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 17% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:1600 Earnings Per Share Growth December 29th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Tian Lun Gas Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Tian Lun Gas Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was -33%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Tian Lun Gas Holdings shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 15% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 3% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Tian Lun Gas Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Tian Lun Gas Holdings (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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