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VirTra, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:VTSI) 30% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 27, 2023 06:14

VirTra, Inc. (NASDAQ:VTSI) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. The annual gain comes to 124% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in the United States' Aerospace & Defense industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may consider VirTra as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.8x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for VirTra

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqCM:VTSI Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 27th 2023

How VirTra Has Been Performing

VirTra certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. The P/S is probably high because investors think this strong revenue performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on VirTra.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For VirTra?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, VirTra would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 29% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 99% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 8.1% during the coming year according to the two analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 11% growth, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

In light of this, it's alarming that VirTra's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From VirTra's P/S?

VirTra shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for VirTra, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. When we see a weak revenue outlook, we suspect the share price faces a much greater risk of declining, bringing back down the P/S figures. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for VirTra that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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