According to Everbright Securities, the final comprehensive electricity price (taking into account capacity subsidies) in Shanghai, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which are also in the eastern coastal regions, is expected to remain basically at the level of 23 years.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report stating that Guangdong Province's 2024 electricity transaction results were implemented, with an average transaction price of 465.62 per kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 15.93%. The growth rate of electricity demand has slowed down, leading to a marked decline in electricity volume and electricity price trading results. The bank believes that the Guangdong electricity price signing results are in line with previous weak expectations and are lower than the medium- to long-term electricity price signing results for Jiangsu Province released this week. There are differences in the situation in each province and need to be judged on the circumstances. Looking ahead to other provinces, with reference to the signing situation in Jiangsu Province, the bank determined that the final comprehensive electricity prices (taking into account capacity subsidies) in Shanghai, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which are also in the eastern coastal regions, are expected to remain basically at the level of 23 years.
The views of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The electricity price of thermal power fell 15.93% year on year, green electricity was traded at a premium and the trading volume doubled
The average transaction price was 465.62 per kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 15.93%. Among them, the annual bilaterally negotiated electricity price was 465.64% per kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 15.93%. The electricity price for Green Power bilateral negotiations was 465.64 cm/kilowatt-hour, with a combined environmental premium of 10.38 cm/kilowatt-hour, a year-on-year decrease of 13.63%; in 2023, Guangdong Green Power had a discount of 2 cm/kilowatt-hour compared to thermal power. This was a premium transaction, and the trading volume of Green Power in 2024 was nearly double that of 2023 (the transaction volume in 2024 was 3.107 billion kilowatt-hours, and 2023 was 1,563 billion kilowatt-hours).
Expected subsidy for capacity electricity price 24.0 yuan/MWh
Capacitive electricity prices are implemented in accordance with relevant national and provincial regulations. Guangdong Province follows a capacity electricity price of 100 yuan/kilowatt. Refer to the 4,163 hours of thermal power usage in Guangdong Province, and the corresponding capacity subsidy is 24.0 yuan/MWh.
The comprehensive feed-in tariff for thermal power is in line with the market's weak expectations, down 11.59% year on year. If capacity subsidies are taken into account, the comprehensive electricity price (capacity+electricity) received by Guangdong thermal power units was 489.66 yuan/MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 11.59%, corresponding to 64 cm/kWh; up 5.76% from the benchmark price, corresponding to the electricity price of 27 cm/kilowatt-hour. According to Guangdong's previous annual electricity trading plan, the electricity price of utility coal electricity (that is, electricity transaction price, electricity price) is formed by “benchmark+ fluctuating up and down” through market transactions, with a margin of no more than 20%. In the end, integrated feed-in tariffs are still within the expected range, slightly higher than the benchmark electricity price level.
Imports and exports are under pressure, and electricity supply and demand are relaxed
The results of the signing of electricity prices in Guangdong Province have clearly declined. The bank believes that it is mainly related to the decline in electricity demand. Among them, the cumulative amount of imports and exports in Guangdong from January to October this year was 680.58 billion yuan; judging from the average price level of electricity traded in Guangdong, the spot price level dropped significantly year-on-year: 1) The highest electricity price, as of 2023.12.23, was February 28, corresponding to 0.835 yuan/kilowatt-hour; the highest electricity price in 2022 was July 30, corresponding to 1.070 yuan/kilowatt-hour; 2) the number of days with high electricity prices. As of 2023.12.23, the number of days with the spot-weighted average trading electricity price was greater than 0.800 yuan/kilowatt-hour. 2022 is 29 days long. The bank believes that the growth rate of electricity demand is slowing down, which has led to a marked decline in electricity volume and electricity price trading results.
The bank believes that the Guangdong electricity price signing results are in line with previous weak expectations and are lower than the medium- to long-term electricity price signing results in Jiangsu Province announced this week. There are differences in the situation in each province and need to be judged on the circumstances. Looking ahead to other provinces, with reference to the signing situation in Jiangsu Province, the bank determined that the final comprehensive electricity prices (taking into account capacity subsidies) in Shanghai, Anhui, and Zhejiang, which are also in the eastern coastal regions, are expected to remain basically at the level of 23 years.
Risk analysis: Demand for terminal electricity has declined; the progress of the transformation of new energy sources has fallen short of expectations; the implementation of the Coal Price Cooperation has fallen short of expectations; and the installed costs of wind power and photovoltaics have increased dramatically.