The market wasn't impressed with the soft earnings from Accel Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1283) recently. Our analysis has found some reasons to be concerned, beyond the weak headline numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Accel Group Holdings
Zooming In On Accel Group Holdings' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
For the year to September 2023, Accel Group Holdings had an accrual ratio of 0.24. Unfortunately, that means its free cash flow fell significantly short of its reported profits. Even though it reported a profit of HK$40.4m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through HK$38m in the last year. It's worth noting that Accel Group Holdings generated positive FCF of HK$50m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Accel Group Holdings.
Our Take On Accel Group Holdings' Profit Performance
Accel Group Holdings' accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Accel Group Holdings' statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. In further bad news, its earnings per share decreased in the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Be aware that Accel Group Holdings is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those make us uncomfortable...
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Accel Group Holdings' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.