Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:ACGL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
Arch Capital Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Arch Capital Group
How Is Arch Capital Group's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the market for P/E ratios like Arch Capital Group's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 147%. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 177% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 5.3% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's understandable that Arch Capital Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Final Word
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of Arch Capital Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Arch Capital Group that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Arch Capital Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.