The Zhitong Finance app learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that the launch of a new round of guaranteed housing has gradually clarified the framework of the new real estate model. The bank expects this policy to focus mainly on Tier 1 and 2 cities with strong financial strength, a good industrial base, and a continuous inflow of population. Therefore, investors are advised to pay attention to local state-owned development and construction entities, including Tiandiyuan (600665.SH), Tianjian Group (000090.SZ), Pudong Jinqiao (600639.SH), and Chinese enterprises (). 600675.SH Furthermore, given the logic of the recovery of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to I Love My Family (000560.SZ), Shell-W (02423), etc.

Incident: The heads of relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of Housing, Urban-Rural Development were interviewed by reporters, introduced the reasons for starting a new round of affordable housing planning and construction, and explained issues such as who is covered by insurance, who will build it, and how to manage it.

Fangzheng Securities's views are as follows:

Reason for initiation: important support for the new model, major reforms to improve the housing system and supply.

Currently, there is an urgent need for the real estate market to establish a new development model to promote the healthy development of the real estate market with the two-wheel drive of “protection+market”. However, in the past, the construction of affordable housing has lagged behind, resulting in a low share of the overall housing supply. According to estimates by the Fangzheng Securities Macro Group, the narrow sense of guaranteed housing accounts for only 7.2% of China's housing supply. Furthermore, since commercial housing prices in Tier 1 and 2 cities exceed the ability of some wage earners to pay, many people's housing needs cannot be effectively released. Therefore, the launch of a new round of guaranteed housing is seen as an important support for the new model of real estate development. It is also a major reform to improve the housing system and supply system, and to restructure the market and security relationship.

The difference from before: Previously, the allocation type was mainly the allocation type, and thereafter it will be divided into two types: the allocation type and the placement type.

The new round of guaranteed housing plans has changed the previous model, which was mainly a rental type, to an equal emphasis on “allocation+allocation”, focusing on making up for the shortcomings of the allocation type. Guaranteed rental housing mainly includes public rental housing and guaranteed rental housing. Among them, construction of public rental housing began in 2010, and construction of guaranteed housing began in 2021, which was the main model of guaranteed housing until now. A new round of guaranteed housing has proposed the concept of place-type guaranteed housing, which is distributed according to the principle of capital protection and minimal profit, in order to solve the housing problems of underpaid workers. At the same time, the scope of protection was reasonably determined and gradually extended to the entire wage income group.

Eligibility: “Two categories of groups”, wage earners with housing difficulties, imported technology, teachers, medical personnel, etc.

The new round of guaranteed housing will focus on the “two categories of groups,” starting with the most disadvantaged groups and gradually expanding the scope of coverage. Specifically, the key protection targets include: 1) wage earners with housing difficulties and low incomes; 2) science and technology personnel, teachers, healthcare workers, etc. that need to be brought in by cities. The purchase of place-type affordable housing will be carried out on a household basis, and each insured person can only purchase one set of guaranteed housing. The specific criteria will be ranked and sold according to factors such as the applicant's household income, housing, and property.

Construction and management: The city party committee and government bear the main responsibility and implement strict closed management.

In terms of construction, the city party committee and government bear the main responsibility for guaranteed housing. The amount of construction will be “determined as needed” by the city government, and the methods for scientifically and rationally determining the scale of supply will make full use of resources such as approved unbuilt land, housing, and land that have been taken back in accordance with the law, and housing and land that have been judicially disposed of. In terms of management, guaranteed housing will be strictly closed and managed to prevent newly built place-type affordable housing from being converted into commercial housing in violation of regulations and entering the market.

Risk warning: policy implementation falls short of expectations; credit risk continues to spread; property market recovery falls short of expectations.