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John Marshall Bancorp (NASDAQ:JMSB) Investors Are up 20% in the Past Week, but Earnings Have Declined Over the Last Three Years

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 20, 2023 07:50

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:JMSB), which is up 68%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 16% (not including dividends).

Since it's been a strong week for John Marshall Bancorp shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for John Marshall Bancorp

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last three years, John Marshall Bancorp failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 23% (annualized).

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.9% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. It could be that the revenue growth of 5.3% per year is viewed as evidence that John Marshall Bancorp is growing. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqCM:JMSB Earnings and Revenue Growth December 20th 2023

If you are thinking of buying or selling John Marshall Bancorp stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of John Marshall Bancorp, it has a TSR of 72% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 25% in the last year, John Marshall Bancorp shareholders lost 18% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand John Marshall Bancorp better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for John Marshall Bancorp you should know about.

We will like John Marshall Bancorp better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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