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Calix, Inc.'s (NYSE:CALX) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 18, 2023 06:39

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 59.1x Calix, Inc. (NYSE:CALX) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 9x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Calix has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Calix

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:CALX Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry December 18th 2023
Keen to find out how analysts think Calix's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Calix would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 7.8%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 323% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.0% over the next year. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10%, which is noticeably more attractive.

In light of this, it's alarming that Calix's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Calix's P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Calix's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Calix with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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