share_log

A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From Dave Inc.'s (NASDAQ:DAVE) 44% Share Price Climb

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 13, 2023 05:49

Dave Inc. (NASDAQ:DAVE) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 44% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 21% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, Dave's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Software industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 4.3x and even P/S above 11x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.

View our latest analysis for Dave

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGM:DAVE Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 13th 2023

What Does Dave's Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Dave has been doing very well. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is low because investors think this strong revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on Dave will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Dave, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as Dave's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 32%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 102% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

When compared to the industry's one-year growth forecast of 15%, the most recent medium-term revenue trajectory is noticeably more alluring

With this information, we find it odd that Dave is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

What Does Dave's P/S Mean For Investors?

Even after such a strong price move, Dave's P/S still trails the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We're very surprised to see Dave currently trading on a much lower than expected P/S since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider industry forecast. When we see robust revenue growth that outpaces the industry, we presume that there are notable underlying risks to the company's future performance, which is exerting downward pressure on the P/S ratio. It appears many are indeed anticipating revenue instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Dave (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Dave's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment