Maiden Holdings, Ltd. (NASDAQ:MHLD) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 52% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 9.0% isn't as impressive.
Even after such a large jump in price, Maiden Holdings may still be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.7x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 32x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.
For instance, Maiden Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
View our latest analysis for Maiden Holdings
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
Maiden Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 54%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 43% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 10% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.
With this information, we find it odd that Maiden Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It looks like most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.
The Final Word
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Maiden Holdings' P/E close to the market median. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Maiden Holdings currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is higher than the wider market forecast. When we see strong earnings with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears many are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Maiden Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them don't sit too well with us.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Maiden Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.