Guotai Junan released a research report saying that in 2019-2023, collection, the epidemic, etc. affected the industry. It is anticipated that 2024, regardless of whether the stage of positive or negative impact, has passed, and it will return to the main logic driven by healthcare demand.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that in 2019-2023, the collection, epidemic, etc. affected industries. It is anticipated that 2024, regardless of whether it has had the greatest positive or negative impact, has passed, returning to the main logic driven by healthcare demand. The health insurance fund with the largest purchasing power in the domestic market is just needed, and there is no shortage of structural opportunities in the recovery of diagnosis and treatment. The 2024 policy is in the optimization window period. Stock selection is sinking, and grasping the small cycle of business operations.
Guotai Junan's views are as follows:
The 2024 policy is in a period of optimizing the window.
The 2024 health insurance policy rules on price control are closer to industry facts and clinical practice; the progress of implementation of the DRG has not yet had a greater impact; the payment of innovative drugs and the promotion of local reforms in hospitalization policies — overall, a friendly window period.
The market is just needed, and innovation is improving.
In 2019-2023, the collection, epidemic, etc. affected the industry. It is anticipated that 2024, regardless of whether it has had a positive or negative impact, has passed, and it will return to the main logic driven by healthcare demand. The health insurance fund with the largest purchasing power in the domestic market requires immediate expenditure, and there is no shortage of structural opportunities in the recovery of diagnosis and treatment; in the international market, some advanced manufacturing industries have comprehensive advantages and it is difficult to find “meal replacements” in the world. Innovative local drugs have begun to export IP, and the overall industry trend is improving.
The valuation system for the pharmaceutical sector has entered a period of relative stability.
There have been three major changes in the market valuation of the pharmaceutical sector over the past year: ① PEG in the main segments has returned to 1-1.5 times; ② the weight of short-term options has increased; ③ the valuation of innovative assets has been initially formed. ——The valuation system is expected to remain stable under the main factors driving industrial growth in 2024.
Stock selection is sinking, and grasping the small cycle of business operations.
Risk warning: the progress and magnitude of collection is uncertain; the progress of new drug development is uncertain; the impact of international market exchange rates is uncertain.