Jinwu Financial News | According to CCB International Development Research Report, after the National Day Golden Week (October 1-7), China's catering demand weakened, while facing competition from regional mass market restaurant operators. The bank lowered Yum China (09987)'s revenue growth forecast for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 from 9.9% to 8.5%. Meanwhile, the restaurant profit margin forecast for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 was lowered from 13.2% to 7.2%. The bank expects its fourth-quarter net profit to rise 32% to $70 million, equivalent to 78% of the fourth quarter of 2019.
According to the bank, it is expected that by the end of fiscal year 2024, the average selling price will remain stable until a slight decline. As customer traffic returns to normal, same-store sales are expected to increase slightly. Furthermore, Yum China continues to open new stores to deepen market penetration, which will continue to drive revenue growth in fiscal year 2024. As a result, the bank expects the company's revenue to increase by 11.2% in fiscal year 2024, with internal sales at the same store increasing by about 1.5%.
The bank will lower its earnings forecast for FY2023/FY2024 by 5%/11% to reflect the company's more conservative revenue growth and restaurant profit margin expectations. The target price-earnings ratio was lowered from 29 times to 25 times to reflect the slow recovery in consumption. The bank lowered the company's target price from $58 /HK$452.4 to $52.7 /HK$411.1. The bank believes that despite recent uncertainty, the company's strong brand portfolio and supply chain will help it achieve sustainable growth. Maintain an outperforming market rating.