According to a research report published by Bank International, automakers with export strength and supply chain advantages will compete in the fiercely competitive passenger car market. The bank believes that as a leader in the NEV sector, the export sales volume of BYD shares (01211) will maintain a high growth rate; while its supply chain advantages and product strength enable BYD to have pricing power and maintain its dominant position in the increasingly competitive Chinese NEV market. Furthermore, the bank believes that the accelerated transformation of Great Wall Motor (02333) will lead to an increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, which will be a key catalyst for the company's stock price. Among the new forces, the bank is still optimistic about the pace of the new car of Ideal Auto - W (02015) 2024.
The main views of JBC International are as follows:
The passenger car market in China has maintained a steady growth rate, and the trend of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy is irreversible.
The bank expects passenger car sales to increase by 5.6%/2.0% year on year in 2023/2024, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to rise to 33.8%/44.6%. The bank expects automakers to maintain high discount levels in 2024 to promote and remove inventory, and the price war will become normalized. According to the price segment, the bank expects that the share of high-end markets above 300,000 yuan (RMB, same below) will continue to expand; since the penetration rate of new energy is still low, the price band of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan will become a must-compete ground for new energy vehicle companies, and competition will intensify in 2024.
It is expected that independent brands will continue to seize the new energy market.
The concentration of the NEV market in China has further increased. The market share of BYD, the biggest player, jumped from 20% in 2021 to 35% in the first 10 months of 2023, further widening the gap with the second tier; the NEV development of joint ventures and foreign brands is still lagging behind that of independent brands. The market share of independent brands has gradually increased from 30-40% in 2020 to nearly 60% at present. As technology companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi also enter the automobile market, it is expected that the market share of independent brands will continue to increase.
Intelligent driving may become a key factor in car companies' competition, leading the large-scale implementation of assisted driving (NOA).
The intensive implementation of autonomous driving policies is expected to promote the rapid development of intelligent driving in China. The bank believes that Huawei's heavy perception light map smart driving technology route is likely to become mainstream. Abandoning high-precision maps and implementing urban NOA in more cities has become the short-term goal of many car companies. Many car companies have announced that they will implement the multi-city NOA function in urban areas in the second half of 2023. It favors the intelligent driving-related industry chain.
China's automobile exports have developed by leaps and bounds.
In the first 10 months of 2023, China's automobile exports grew strongly, surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter. The bank expects to achieve a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50% for the full year of 2023, with vehicle exports exceeding 5.1 million units; the forecast for 2024 is that it will still achieve a year-on-year growth rate of 20-25%. As the popularity of China's independent brands gradually increases overseas, it will promote a further increase in China's automobile export sales.