Jinwu Financial News | According to the Bank of China International Development Research Report, the growth rate of the core business of Pharmaceutical Biology (02269) declined, and the company lowered its revenue and profit guidelines for 2023-24. Revenue side: The company said that in 2023, excluding COVID-19, revenue growth is expected to be 36% (VS1H 2359.7%), but the overall revenue growth rate is expected to be only 10%, which is significantly lower than the previous growth rate of 30%. Mainly because: 1) Global investment and financing has entered a downward cycle; 2) the revenue of the three M-side projects was delayed until the end of 2024 to 2025 due to regulatory reasons; 3) the sharp decline in COVID-19 projects. Profit side: The company expects gross margin of about 40% in 2023. Net profit is basically the same as last year, and adjusted net profit declined slightly.
According to the bank, commercial orders in the medium to long term are expected to drive a recovery in the growth rate. The company aims to achieve double-digit growth in revenue and adjusted net profit in 2024. The growth rate has further recovered to 30% in 2025, and gross margin is expected to increase by 1.5 pcts year by year to about 45% in 2026.
The bank lowered the company's 2023-25E revenue forecast by 14-24% to 16.8 billion/18.9 billion/23.3 billion yuan, and the adjusted net profit forecast fell 28-32% to 4.56 billion/5.29 billion/6.76 billion yuan, corresponding to 22% 2023-25 ECAGR. Based on the DCF model, the bank lowered the company's target price to HK$34. There is still some risk that stock prices will decline in the coming months. The bank's 12-month target price corresponds to a potential increase of only 3%, and the rating was downgraded to neutral.