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Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical's (SHSE:600426) Earnings Growth Rate Lags the 26% CAGR Delivered to Shareholders

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 4, 2023 19:51

It hasn't been the best quarter for Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600426) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 14% in that time. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. We think most investors would be happy with the 191% return, over that period. Generally speaking the long term returns will give you a better idea of business quality than short periods can. Ultimately business performance will determine whether the stock price continues the positive long term trend.

In light of the stock dropping 4.8% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

See our latest analysis for Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical managed to grow its earnings per share at 4.7% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 24% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:600426 Earnings Per Share Growth December 5th 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical the TSR over the last 5 years was 220%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 6.7% in the twelve months, Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical shareholders did even worse, losing 9.0% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 26%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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