Guotai Junan released a research report saying that the logic of rapid rise in volume and price of passenger cars in the medium term will continue to be interpreted. It is expected that the 2024 market will still be better than the first half of the year, recommending the three main lines of autonomous vehicle, intelligence, and new energy.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guotai Junan released a research report stating that the logic of the mid-term rise in passenger car prices will continue to be interpreted. It is expected that the 2024 market will still be better than the first half of the year, recommending the independent rise of the three main lines of automobile+intelligence+new energy; the heavy truck and bus industry will focus on recovering domestic market demand in 2024, and two-wheelers on overseas demand.
Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
Domestic market: independent brands start the Warring States era
Driven by exports and renewal demand, domestic passenger car sales will continue to grow steadily; domestic replacement of joint venture brands by independent brands will accelerate, and gradually replace from the mid-range market of 100,000 to 200,000 to the high-end market of 200,000 +; as brands such as Huawei enter the NEV circuit in different ways, competition within independent brands is becoming increasingly intense.
Overseas markets: Chinese manufacturing accelerates overseas expansion
Automakers are accelerating to the global market, and fuel vehicles are still dominated by Belt and Road countries. It is expected that starting in 2024, the contribution of regions other than Russia will become more obvious. New energy vehicles will still use Europe as the main export destination; parts companies will start an overseas factory construction model, and Mexico and Europe will be the main sources of growth.
Intelligent driving is advancing at an accelerated pace, and the penetration rate of high-pressure fast charging continues to increase
With the gradual application of the end-to-end model and the BEV+Transformer model, advanced intelligent driving continues to improve at the technical level. With the four ministries and commissions issuing pilot guidelines, intelligent driving is one step further towards commercial application; 800v high-voltage fast charging has begun to sink into the mid-range market, further solving the problem of range anxiety and starting a new journey of electrification.
Risk warning: the risk that the overall sales volume of passenger cars falls short of expectations, the risk that profitability due to increased competition falls short of expectations, and the risk that the profitability of overseas business falls short of expectations. Article source