国信证券24年化工策略:景气度有望触底反弹 看好上游核心资源品及下游新兴化学品方向

Guoxin Securities's 24-year chemical strategy: the economy is expected to bottom out and rebound, optimistic about the direction of upstream core resource products and downstream emerging chemicals

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 1, 2023 01:06

We are more optimistic about the investment direction of upstream core resource products and emerging chemicals where downstream demand is expected to continue to grow.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2024, considering the relative resilience of the global macro, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle is expected to end, and domestic support policies for real estate and other industries have been introduced one after another, the bank believes that domestic and foreign demand for chemical products is expected to resume growth, and the overall prosperity of the chemical industry is expected to bottom out and rebound, but considering the large-scale supply-side capital expenditure of the midstream chemical industry and the growth rate of demand for traditional chemicals in the downstream chemical industry sector has slowed down. Therefore, the conflict between supply and demand in the midstream chemical industry is prominent, and the profit level will still be at a point Historically low levels. Therefore, the bank is more optimistic about the investment direction of upstream core resource products and emerging chemicals where downstream demand is expected to continue to grow.

The main views of Guoxin Securities are as follows:

Main investment line 1: core resource product industry with undervaluation and high dividends+increasing prosperity. The bank is optimistic

1) Oil and gas sector: The bank believes that oil prices are expected to remain in the medium to high range in 2024, and that the upstream oil and gas extraction sector will maintain a high level of prosperity. At the same time, domestic natural gas consumption will maintain rapid growth in the medium to long term, and natural gas price linkage will also benefit upstream resources.

2) Potash sector: The bank believes that in the second half of 2023, potash removal is nearing its end, and prices are rebounding steadily. In 2024, the balance between global supply and demand for potash is tight, domestic supply is relatively relaxed, the price center is expected to move up, and long-term resource attributes are showing.

Main investment line 2: chemical sub-sector with improved supply-demand relationship and accelerated localization of substitution. The bank is optimistic

1) Fluorite-refrigerant sector: Demand from emerging downstream industries of fluorite is rising, scarcity attributes of resource products are becoming more prominent, and product prices are expected to reevaluate upward; supply-side quota management has been implemented at the legislative level, and the competitive pattern of the industry is concentrated, while downstream demand has resumed steady growth, and third-generation fluorinated refrigerants are expected to usher in a boom recovery.

2) Tire sector: The bank believes that the global tire industry is a trillion-level track. Domestic tires are poised to break through. It is optimistic that the global market share of leading domestic companies in the medium to long term will gradually increase.

3) In the e-gas sector, the increase in demand for downstream semiconductors combined with the localization replacement process has brought development opportunities to domestic e-gas companies. The bank is optimistic that the market share of domestic gas companies in the incremental market will continue to increase.

4) Natural food additives sector: In the future, domestic food additives and ingredients are expected to develop from synthetic chemicals to natural chemicals. The bank believes that demand for natural food additives represented by dietary fiber, alloketone sugar, etc. is expected to grow rapidly.

5) Coal chemical sector: In the future, stocks within the coal chemical industry will be optimized, and backward production capacity will continue to be cleared. At the same time, coal-to-olefin and other chemicals will also have a certain cost advantage due to high oil prices. The bank is optimistic that enterprises with integrated coal resources will continue to expand their competitive advantage in the future.

Risk warning: Prices of related products have dropped sharply, new production capacity is progressing higher than expected, raw material market fluctuations are sharp, downstream demand falls short of expectations, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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