share_log

Optimism for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group (HKG:1596) Has Grown This Past Week, Despite Three-year Decline in Earnings

Simply Wall St ·  Nov 30, 2023 17:25

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group Corporation Limited (HKG:1596) shareholders have seen the share price rise 17% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (28%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 13% , including dividends .

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years of share price growth, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 39% per year.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Therefore, we think it's worth considering other metrics as well.

Languishing at just 1.2%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 1.8% per annum revenue growth trend? We don't. While we don't have an obvious theory to explain the share price rise, a closer look at the data might be enlightening.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:1596 Earnings and Revenue Growth November 30th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Hebei Yichen Industrial Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 20%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Hebei Yichen Industrial Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 13% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 1.9% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hebei Yichen Industrial Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Hebei Yichen Industrial Group you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment