The Zhitong Finance app learned that the Baltic Sea dry bulk freight price index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting an 18-month high, and the freight prices of various types of shipping rose. The Baltic Sea dry bulk freight price index rose 305 points, or 12.8%, to 2,696 points, the highest level since May 2022. The Panamanian shipping price index rose 25 points, or 1.2%, to 2131 points. The average daily profit of Panamanian ships rose by $233 to $19,183. The ultra-portable bulk carrier price index rose 39 points, or 2.3%, to 1,360 points. Industry insiders said that it is already the food season in the US Gulf. Europe began to cool down in November. Winter food and coal resonate, causing demand for Panamanian bulk carriers to be particularly strong. The Atlantic route continues to rush Panama-type bulk carriers, which have recently spread to Cape of Good Hope bulk carriers. Relevant targets: Pacific Shipping (02343), COSCO Marine Control (01919), China Shipbuilding Defense (00317), China Ship Leasing (03877).

Furthermore, according to Clarkson data, on November 28, the equivalent rental rent (TCE) of the MR product tanker's Atlantic regional route reached 59,900 US dollars/day, the highest point since this year.

Southwest Securities trading industry researchers have determined that at present, iron ore stocks are in the final stage of removal, and subsequent iron ore inventories are expected to fluctuate upward and enter a new round of replenishment cycles, leading to a further increase in freight rates. Meanwhile, the release of financial attributes at the end of the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to help BDI rise.

“It is worth mentioning that in the Atlantic region, Vale (Vale) returns to the market for rent on the long route, and Brazil installs futures in the middle of the month. The market speculates that tenants are still “covering the market” and continues to be optimistic about the demand side. Coupled with the strong desire for pallet transactions on the transatlantic route, dry bulk FFA buying continues to push up TCE, and the Brazilian long-distance route BCI-C3 transactions are at the level of 25.9-26.97 US dollars/ton.” The aforementioned industry insider further stated.

Wang Keqiang, a researcher at the Marine Futures Investment Consulting Department, said that other marine markets for medium-sized ships are also showing growth potential due to limited tonnage available, and the current prospects for medium-sized ship freight rates are good.

Overall, CFA Wang Zhenfeng, China Merchants Shipping Dry Bulk Cargo Analyst, believes that, on the one hand, there is seasonal fundamental support; on the other hand, at the macro level, the Federal Reserve, one of the two major factors that previously suppressed the market, is likely to stop this round of interest rate hikes. The marginal benefits in terms of liquidity have boosted trade. Expectations of recovery from a domestic perspective are not stable, so the market stage is improving.

Judging from the fleet situation of various shipowners, according to the semi-annual report data of various shipowners, China Merchants Shipping has 97 bulk carriers, including 16 Cape of Good Hope bulk carriers, and a number of chartered ships; Ningbo Shipping has 32 bulk carriers (including 1 charter capacity), including 28 portable bulk carriers, 3 Panamanian bulk carriers, and 1 sea-type headland ship; HNA Technology has its own capacity of about 750,000 paytons. The fleet includes 6 large hope-type ships, 2 Panamanian ships 1 ship; Haitong has developed its own ship capacity and chartered ship capacity totaling more than 1.69 million DWT (excluding chartered capacity). Includes Cape of Good Hope type, Panama type, super convenient type, convenient type, etc. The peak season performance of the Q4 dry bulk shipping market this year will also bring great benefits to dry bulk shipowners.

As for next year, CITIC Futures said it expects the global dry bulk fleet supply growth rate to be 1.5%, demand will increase by 2.0%, and the overall freight rate center will rise. At the same time, cape-type and large-sized ships are generally tight. Ships run at low speeds to absorb part of the capacity, and the proportion of capacity in port has increased in some sections, which is expected to drive the freight rate center upward. It is expected that in 2024, the average value of the BDI index may close between 1400-1,600 points, showing a weak rebound from this year.

Related concept stocks:

Pacific Shipping (02343): Mainly engaged in owning and leasing convenient and ultra-convenient dry bulk carriers, focusing on the global small commodity dry bulk shipping business. The company has its own fleet of 115 small portable dry bulk carriers and super convenient dry bulk carriers, and is operating a total of about 243 owned and leased cargo ships.

COSCO Maritime Control (01919): Currently, COSCO Maritime Control has set up nearly 700 container shipping sales and service outlets around the world, operating 291 international routes (including international branch lines), 56 Chinese coastal routes, and 84 branch routes in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River. In total, it is linked to 569 ports in about 142 countries and regions around the world. The company's self-operated container fleet has a capacity of over 2.92 million TEUs.

China Shipbuilding Defense (00317): The company is a large-scale comprehensive marine and defense equipment enterprise group integrating four major marine equipment: marine defense equipment, marine transportation equipment, marine development equipment, and marine science and technology application equipment.

China Ship Leasing (03877): As of December 31, 2022, China's ship leasing portfolio reached 158 ships, ranking in a leading position in the world. Of these, there are 129 operating ships, 29 are under construction, and the average age of the operating fleet is 3.2 years.