Today is the last day of November. The Hang Seng Index finally closed the Xiaoyang line. Although it only rose 0.29%, it is significant because the index has returned above 17,000 points, at least shorting forces have been curbed to a certain extent.
[Anatomy Board]
Today is the last day of November. The Hang Seng Index finally closed the Xiaoyang line. Although it only rose 0.29%, it is significant because the index has returned above 17,000 points, at least shorting forces have been curbed to a certain extent.
The market is widely disseminating a Korean media report: South Korea's top five banks are now facing investigation by the competent authorities due to large sales of ELS worth more than 8.4 trillion won (more than 46 billion yuan) due to the expiration date in June next year. If the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCEI) index continues to decline, these ELS losses will continue to expand, and these Korean banks and brokerage companies may face class action lawsuits. The ELS products involved were selected from 50 Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including Tencent Holdings, Alibaba, etc. As market interest rates rise and economic expectations fluctuate, the stock market continues to weaken, and the investment risk of ELS products has increased dramatically as a result. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index for that year surpassed 12,200 points on February 19. However, after hitting a new high, the index had been at a standstill for less than 3 years. Even after opening at 5959 on the 29th, the intraday market fell 100 points all the way down, reaching a low of 5818 points in the afternoon session. This means that as the Hong Kong stock index has declined from its 2021 high, investors are left with half of their losses. How do you say that? Investment in South Korea is only one shortcoming. Many types of funds that invest in Hong Kong stocks face this problem. It is actually a concept that I mentioned yesterday. Looking at it now, BlackRock and Pioneer have announced their withdrawal from the Chinese market one after another. After all, it is the same thing. Leaving aside so-called “conspiracy theories,” the main reason is that they cannot make money in the domestic capital market.
According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics on November 30, the manufacturing PMI for November was 49.4%, slightly lower than 0.1 percentage points in October. The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2% and is still in an expansion range. The November PMI data reflects the current weak supply and demand in the market, and the economic growth rate has slowed slightly. In addition to being dragged down by the real estate market, demand in the consumer goods manufacturing industry and service industries declined after holiday consumption and shopping festival promotions faded, and uncertainty about overseas economic growth also dragged down China's exports. However, the prosperity of the equipment manufacturing industry and the high-tech manufacturing industry continues to rise, and the policy's support effect on advantageous industries and high-tech industries is showing; although the current economic recovery is weakening, the confidence of enterprises in market development prospects is increasing.
There was a favorable announcement last night. Xinhua Insurance and China Life Insurance jointly invested 50 billion yuan to establish a private equity fund. The private equity fund is managed by two asset management companies, Xinhua Asset and China Life Insurance Asset. It can be seen from this that there is still money in insurance capital. The launch at this point has boosted confidence. Although it is not an equalization fund, it is also considered a fund that stabilizes the market. Insurance funds, social security funds, and remittance funds may also enter the market in the future, and it is not even ruled out that equalization funds will enter the market. It seems that stabilizing the market does require the end of real money. This is more simple and crude than the strength required at the policy level. With this subsequent increase, OTC funding dared to enter the market. According to convention, varieties with high dividends and low valuations and stable large market capitalization are likely to be favored by new giants. Examples such as China Mobile (00941) are representative of this.
I mentioned yesterday that Duan Yongping, a major investor in the investment industry, has taken the bottom of the news from Tencent (00700). Today, under favorable impetus, it is easy to get a response from the market. Volume surged by 3.15%, and the volume increased to 9.8 billion dollars, which is a significant increase compared to the recent average of about 5 billion dollars in volume. It shows that there was quite a bit of capital following purchases today. Since this year, the number and amount of Tencent's repurchases have once again reached record highs. As of November 29, Tencent has issued 105 repurchases this year, for a total of 118 million shares, bringing the total repurchase amount to HK$38.989 billion. Judging from several major internet giants, Tencent (00700) is considered very strong among them, because its WeChat has a huge moat, and this traffic advantage is not second only to Douyin. Another piece of news: Recently, we learned from people familiar with the matter that Blizzard is already in talks with a number of game manufacturers, including NetEase and Tencent, about the return of the national service, but so far there are no confirmed partners or a specific return time, and Tencent has yet to respond to this matter. Netease-s (09999) also rose 0.15% today.
As confirmed by various sources, Country Garden was invited to participate in the housing enterprise symposium organized by the Industrial and Commercial Bank. Recently, many banks, such as China Construction Bank and Zheshang Bank, have held housing enterprise symposiums. Public information shows that up to now, Country Garden is still the only “risk” housing enterprise invited to participate in the conference. This news is an encouragement not only for Country Garden (02007), but for the entire “venture” housing enterprise. In particular, China Evergrande (03333), which has a final hearing in early December, was clearly irritating. Today, Evergrande Property (06666) also surged 11.61%, and Evergrande Property (06666) also surged 17.78%. Furthermore, “coal owners” bucked the market and invaded the property market, spending over 4.1 billion dollars to buy three luxury homes in Lujiazui, Shanghai. Does this news reflect that real estate is getting warmer? It feels like more terminal data is needed to verify.
The National Standards Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued the “Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Standardization of the Securities and Futures Industry”, which for the first time made comprehensive arrangements for the development of standardization in the securities and futures industry. There was a slight change in the securities category today. Futures are the biggest mover. Hongye Futures (03678) is up 14.47% today. I don't know exactly what they are speculating on.
The education sector changed collectively today. Guangzheng Education (06068) disclosed its fiscal year 2023 performance report. Revenue was 319 million yuan, up 15% year on year, net profit was 163 million yuan, up 71.5% year on year, and proposed final dividend of 0.05 yuan per share. Even in terms of stock prices after a sharp rise, the dividend rate is well over 10%. The main highlight is the monetization of 120 million dollars of investment, plus attractive dividends. Today, it surged 116.7%. Hongjiu Fruit (06689) was included as a constituent stock of the MSCI China Small Cap Index, effective after the market closed on November 30, 2023. Recently, the stock's performance has been quite active, mainly through the introduction of Chilean cherries, a major single product. The company and nearly 20 industry partners, including Hema Fresh, have reached a strategic cooperation agreement on Chilean cherries in 2023. This move opens a new era of brand development for imported cherries from China. Whether this single product can be used to create another brilliance remains to be seen.
The turmoil at the end of the month has finally passed. The next step is to focus on the December market. Longer funding has temporarily stabilized the mood, but it is still too early to talk about a reversal, so continuous observation is needed.
[Sector Focus]
The Baltic Sea dry bulk freight price index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting an 18-month high, and freight prices for various types of shipping rose. The Baltic Sea dry bulk freight price index rose 305 points, or 12.8%, to 2,696 points, the highest level since May 2022. The headland shipping price index rose 861 points, or 20.6%, to 5040 points, hitting a high of nearly two years. The average daily profit of cape-type ships climbed $7,140 to $41,796. The Panamanian shipping price index rose 25 points, or 1.2%, to 2131 points. The average daily profit of Panamanian ships rose by $233 to $19,183. The ultra-portable bulk carrier price index rose 39 points, or 2.3%, to 1,360 points. Industry insiders said that it is already the food season in the US Gulf. Europe began to cool down in November. Winter food and coal resonate, causing demand for Panamanian bulk carriers to be particularly strong. The Atlantic route continues to rush Panama-type bulk carriers, which have recently spread to Cape of Good Hope bulk carriers.
The main varieties are: Pacific Shipping (02343) and COSCO Marine Control (01919).
[Individual Stock Nuggets]
Peijia Medical-B (09996): Rapid performance growth driven by innovative two-wheel drive technology with valve and Shenjie
23H1's heart valve intervention business achieved revenue of 108 million yuan, an increase of 107% over the previous year. The rapid growth in the company's valve intervention business was mainly due to the further increase in hospital coverage of the company's products and the rapid release of second-generation recyclable products.
Comment: The company has a comprehensive and in-depth product development office in the field of aortic valve, mitral valve and tricuspid valve treatment, which is expected to continue to consolidate the company's leading position in the field of heart valves. By the end of June '23, the company's TAVR products had added coverage to more than 120 hospitals, covering a total of nearly 410 hospitals, and a sales team of 199 people. 23H1 completed 1,250 TAVR product terminal implantation surgeries, exceeding the number of surgical implants for the full year of '22. Since commercialization of the company's TAVR products in Q4 in '21, clinical feedback has been good, and market share has been steadily increasing. Recently, Peijia Medical teamed up with InQB8 Medical, an American medical device incubator, to bring the latest research progress of the innovative transcatheter tricuspid valve replacement (TTVR) system MonarQ. According to reports, the first successful implantation of the new generation of the MonarQ tricuspid valve replacement system in humans has confirmed the viability and safety of this new system. CE and FDA approval studies for the MonarQ TTVR system are scheduled to begin from 2023 to 2024. The comprehensive layout of the three neurointervention product lines has led to rapid growth in performance driven by innovative techniques. The company currently has 16 neurointerventional products, covering the three major product lines of hemorrhage, ischemia, and pathways, and has launched innovative treatment methods including TRUST, BASIS, and “zero exchange”. Through innovative products and differentiated academic marketing and promotion efforts, revenue in the neurointervention sector is growing rapidly. In the future, with the help of collection, the company is expected to continue to firmly grasp market growth opportunities and increase its share.
Lenovo Group (00992): Accelerating the implementation of AI PCs to promote marginal recovery in growth and profitability
Lenovo Group announced results for the six months ended September 30, 2023, with group revenue of US$27.31 billion; profit attributable to shareholders of US$426 million. According to the TechInsights research report, Q3 global laptop shipments totaled 51.2 million units, down only 7% year on year. This is the first time since Q1 2022 that the market decline has slowed to single digits. Among them, Lenovo shipped 12.2 million units, accounting for 24% of the market share, ranking first.
Comment: The financial report is quite good. Lenovo has achieved month-on-month growth in performance for two consecutive quarters, with gross margin rising to 17.5% year on year, a record high in the second quarter. The non-PC business accounted for more than 40%, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, SSG's business revenue was 13.9 billion yuan and operating profit was 2.78 billion yuan, both of which reached record highs. The share of the company's non-PC business in the Group's overall revenue was further increased to 41.4%. The company plans to invest a total of 1 billion dollars over the next three years to expand its artificial intelligence capabilities. Highlights: 1) According to the company's senior management, the supply of AI servers is in short supply. The number of orders for the two AI servers recently released by Lenovo is booming, and some orders are even scheduled until next year. The two newly launched Lenovo Wentian AI servers cover global applications. In the future, 100% of Lenovo's computing power infrastructure products will support AI, and 50% of infrastructure development will be invested in the AI field. 2) Lenovo and Nvidia have teamed up to launch a hybrid AI solution. 3) Three companies, Lenovo Group, Intel Corporation, and iQiyi, signed a Memorandum of Cooperation. The three companies will develop in-depth cooperation in the field of AI PCs in the future. 4) Lenovo has launched its first AI PC and expects mass production of its AI PC next year.
Chinese Traditional Chinese Medicine (00570): Steady growth in performance, rapid progress in the variety of formula granules
The company's performance increased steadily after merging Tongjitang Pharmaceutical and Tianjiang Pharmaceutical. In 2017-2021, the company's revenue increased from 8.338 billion yuan to 19.53 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 22.95%; in 2017-2021, net profit increased from 1,170 billion yuan to 1,933 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 13.36%. In 2022, due to the impact of the national standard conversion of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, performance was slightly under pressure, and 2023H1 has once again achieved high growth.
Comment: Due to the low base for the same period last year, the company's traditional Chinese medicine formula granule revenue in the first half of the year was +78.5% to 4.93 billion yuan, and its share of revenue increased 6.3 percentage points to 53.0% year on year. Thanks to the recovery in formula granule sales and scale effects, its gross margin increased 2.5 percentage points to 64.1% year on year. In September '23, the company, Shandong, formed a Chinese medicine formula granule procurement alliance with 15 provinces to collect 200 national standard varieties of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, and organize medical institutions to complete demand reporting. The procurement documents were released on September 6. The current rules require a 40% price reduction from the highest effective price to be shortlisted. The collection results are expected to be announced in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the price reduction of formula granules will increase the market penetration rate of this category. The company completed the listing of 523 formula granules in the first half of 2023, and continued to push for channel decline. The formula granule business showed restorative growth. As national standards for traditional Chinese medicine formula granules are implemented one after another, the company's performance is expected to return to a rapid growth channel in the future.