The Zhitong Finance app learned that according to a recent survey data released on Wednesday, economists surveyed and consulted by the media expect South Korea's November export data to achieve positive growth for two consecutive months, driven by semiconductor exports, but the growth rate may be slower than in October, mainly due to uncertainty about global economic growth prospects. As a weather vane for global demand levels, South Korea's export data is regarded by investors as the “canary” of the global economy. At the same time, South Korea was also the first major global export economy to publish monthly trade data, providing investors with important clues to the health of global demand.

Korea produces a variety of products, from machinery and display items to refined oil products. Dave Chia, chief Korean economist from Moody's Analytics (Moody's Analytics), said that the increase in exports of automobiles, machinery, and semiconductors, especially semiconductor products, may drive South Korea's exports towards a growth trend, bringing South Korea's economic growth rate to 1.4% predicted by policymakers this year.

In a recent survey conducted by the media from November 21 to 28, 20 economists from South Korea generally predicted that South Korea, one of Asia's fourth-largest economies, would increase its foreign exports in November by 4.7% compared to the same period last year (4.7% is the median value expected by economists).

If the final data is around 4.7%, this will be slightly lower than the 5.1% year-on-year increase in October. The latter is the first year-on-year increase in 13 months. Of the 20 economists, 9 expect South Korea's economic growth rate to accelerate, but the rest of the economists expect the overall growth rate of the South Korean economy to gradually slow down.

According to export data released by South Korea in October, the export data of South Korea, the “canary” of the global economy, increased for the first time since the end of last year. South Korea's exports in October increased 5.1% year on year, the first rebound in 13 months. Excluding the difference in working days, the average daily shipment volume also increased by 7.6%. Imports fell 9.7%, and the trade surplus reached US$1.6 billion. The October export data achieved positive growth over the past 13 months. This data can be described as a positive sign of the country's economic growth prospects. It also shows that global demand shows a recovery trend, but the sustainability of the recovery is still very questionable.

Lee Jeong-hoon, an economist from Eugene Investment Securities, said: “South Korea's export data is expected to achieve positive growth for two consecutive months. Among them, the semiconductor industry's export scale is expected to resume a strong growth trend, but the current global macroeconomic environment is not enough to support the rapid recovery of the Korean economy.”

South Korea's preliminary export data shows that in the first 20 days of this month, the total value of goods exported by South Korea increased by 2.2% over the same period last year. Economists expect that the export volume of Korean semiconductor products is expected to achieve positive growth for the first time since July 2022 in November, and the year-on-year increase is expected to reach 2.4%.

In terms of destination, South Korea's exports to the US increased 15.7% year on year in the first 20 days of November, but exports to China and the EU fell by 2.4% and 4.1%, respectively.

Oh Suk-tae, an economist from Societe Generale (Societe Generale), said: “Given the continuing uncertainty facing the global economic outlook, the slowdown in export growth we have seen in the current quarter supports our doubts about whether the recovery in South Korea's export data, which is mainly driven by semiconductors, can continue.”

The survey, which covered 20 Korean economists, also showed that, following a 9.7% decline in October, imports in November may have fallen 8.6% from the same period last year, but this will be the smallest drop in eight months. This will keep trade balance data on a surplus trend for six consecutive months. The survey's median estimate also shows that economists generally expect South Korea's trade surplus in November to be about 1.3 billion US dollars, while the figure for October was 1.63 billion US dollars, which is expected to be narrower in comparison.

South Korea is scheduled to release the overall monthly trade data for November at 9:00 a.m. local time on Friday, December 1.