The down payment for a second home in Shenzhen fell to 40%, reaffirming the two major gaps in expectations in the home sector, that is, the extension of the order cycle for completed construction into home furnishings can drive orders over 24 years; this year's share flow to small brands is only a short-term phenomenon, and it is expected that orders will return to the lead in 24 years.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zheshang Securities released a research report saying that the down payment for the second home in Shenzhen fell to 40%, reaffirming the two major gaps in expectations in the home sector, that is, the extension of the order cycle for completion into home furnishings can drive orders over 24 years; this year's share flow to small brands is only a short-term phenomenon, and orders are expected to return to the lead in 24 years. Looking ahead to 24 years, the business growth of leading home furnishing companies can be relied upon: 1) number of customers: channel restructuring, merchants become merchants, and traffic entry is king; 2) customer unit value: still an important driver of same-store growth; 3) profit margin: cost performance is still expected to be the focus, testing cost reduction and fee control at the leading back end.
Investment suggestions: 1) Recommend leading European Home Furnishing (603833.SH), Sophia (002572.SZ), Gujia Home (603816.SH), and Minhua Holdings (01999); 2) recommend small and beautiful stocks with diverse growth drivers, Zhibang Home (), Moose Shares (001323.SZ), and Xilinmen (); 3) Recommend Rilent (002572.SZ), and Usaidar's smart home standards with multiple competitive advantages and high growth. Z) 603801.SH 603008.SH , Fluorite Network (688475.SH), follow Good Wife (603848.SH).
Papermaking: October pulp and paper import and export data were released, and paper prices entered a horizontal consolidation stage
1) Pulp prices have entered a period of fluctuating adjustment, and it is expected that subsequent weak operations will prevail; 2) Pulp base paper has entered a horizontal consolidation range, and implementation of the leading price increase letter is yet to be seen; 3) the price of box board corrugated paper has stopped falling and stabilized, and subsequent volatile operations are expected; 4) The export data for paper segments in October was released, and exports of household paper and coated paper were bright. It is recommended to lay out a leading integrated pulp and paper faucet with cost support and fine management. We recommend Sun Paper (002078.SZ), Bohui Paper (600966.SH), Jiulong Paper (02689), and Mountain Eagle International (600567.SH). Also, focus on Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733.SH), Huawang Technology (605377.SH), and Wuzhou Special Paper (). 605007.SH
Essential consumption: The response from the Chenguang 24th Primary School Flood Order Meeting was enthusiastic, and Baiya invigorates digital marketing
1) Chenguang Co., Ltd. (603899.SH): Excellent feedback on new products at the Elementary School Flood Order Fair, waiting for further recovery in terminal demand in '24.
2) Bull Group (603195.SH): Optimistic to cross the real estate cycle in 24 years through cost performance+new products and channel integration.
3) Baiya Co., Ltd. (003006.SZ): Digital marketing has taken Baiya's refined management to the next level, empowering online and offline to help the country's expansion.
4) Household paper: Vinda International (03331), Zhongshun Jierou (002511.SZ), and Hengan International (01044) have issued price increase letters, optimistic that profit elasticity will be further unleashed.
Export & Trendy Fun: Black Friday sales performance is good, the export chain is expected to benefit, and the first month of operation of Bubble Park is impressive
Export: This round of Black Friday platform competition has intensified, and the overall holiday sales cycle has been extended. Market growth is expected to be steady. Black Friday is expected to grow at a rate of 5.7%, and Cyber Monday is expected to grow 6.1%. Emerging channels such as TikTok Shop and TEMU are growing rapidly, and Amazon's performance is impressive. It is recommended to focus on the targets related to cross-border e-commerce: Zhiou Technology (301376.SZ), Lego Co., Ltd. (300729.SZ), Yongyi Co., Ltd. (603600.SH), and Henglin Co., Ltd. (603661.SH). Additionally, it is recommended to focus on Jiayi Shares (301004.SZ), an individual stock with strong FMCG attributes.
Bubble Mart (09992): The park operated brilliantly in the first month, receiving nearly 100,000 visitors in the first month. On November 20, the mobile game was unboxed and tested. On November 20, new products such as “THE MONSTERS Heart Touching Macaron Face Blind Box” and “SKULLPANDA Tingqian Ink Plum” sold well during the peak season. Zheshang Securities is optimistic that the company's recovery in the mainland will accelerate, overseas expansion will accelerate, and supply chain optimization will drive a continuous increase in profit margins, and reiterated its recommendation.
Risk warning: Real estate completion dragged down expectations; terminal consumption was weak; industry competition intensified; raw material prices fluctuated sharply, etc.