The production capacity of global shipyards has been tightened and is less than demand. Under limited production capacity, ship prices have switched to demand pricing rather than supply pricing, which is optimistic about the profit elasticity of Chinese shipbuilders in the new round of shipbuilding cycles.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Southwest Securities released a research report saying that under the environmental protection policy, fuel replacement is imperative, so demand for rigid ship replacement will further support shipbuilding demand. At the same time, global shipyard production capacity will be tightened, which is less than demand. Under limited production capacity, ship prices have changed to demand pricing rather than supply pricing, which is optimistic about the profit elasticity of Chinese shipbuilders in the new round of shipbuilding cycles. The entire shipping industry chain includes: China Shipbuilding (600150.SH), China Heavy Industries (601989.SH), China Shipbuilding Defense (), Sumeda (), China Power (), China Power (), Asia Star Anchor Chain (Propulsion), and China Coastal Defence (Association). 600685.SH 600710.SH 600482.SH 601890.SH 600764.SH
The views of Southwest Securities are as follows:
The shipping environmental policy is gradually being implemented.
If international shipping were viewed as a country, its carbon dioxide emissions would rank sixth in the world. Internationally, two IMO regulations on measuring and improving the efficiency of existing ships came into effect in early 2023. The EU incorporated the shipping industry into its main climate instrument, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), and implemented it on January 1, 2024, while the EU Marine Fuel Regulation (FueLumariTime) is expected to be implemented on January 1, 2025.
Short-term deceleration and medium- to long-term fuel replacement have become countermeasures.
For shipowners, there are considerable measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as the use of alternative fuels such as new energy, the use of ship design measures to reduce ship resistance and fuel consumption, power assist measures to reduce engine power requirements, engine technology to improve engine/container efficiency, carbon capture, carbon capture, reduce carbon dioxide emissions from exhaust gas, voyage optimization measures, and reduce fuel consumption.
Change ship fuel and promote ship upgrading.
For global shipping, achieving true zero greenhouse gas emissions and changing the fuel used on ships is a must. Fuels such as ammonia, hydrogen, methanol, and natural gas are currently receiving the most attention as alternative energy carriers for marine use. There are two basic options for changing ship fuel. One is to transform the ship's entire fuel power system, and the other is to build a new ship.
Risk warning: macro environment risk, market competition risk, exchange rate risk, customer risk, cost risk, etc.