The Zhitong Finance app learned that Guangfa Securities released a research report saying that Q4 focuses on phased opportunities for urban commercial banks, and the logic of high dividends is expected to restart in the first half of next year. In '23, the “performance growth rate was poor” in bank fundamentals transactions, and “low institutional holdings” were sought in terms of transactions. The industry showed a synchronization between the convergence of performance growth and the convergence of valuations. Major state-owned banks obtained better absolute and relative returns from their steady performance and low institutional holdings. Aggregate demand stabilized in the first half of next year, and relatively matched credit supply, financial market turbulence intensified. The market is likely to return to the pattern of structured opportunities for major banks and flexible banks, and the sector's systemic beta opportunities are likely to be concentrated in the first half of the year. Overfall rebound, recovery attacks, and high dividend revaluations point to three main directions of focus.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Annual recovery of the banking industry: Fundamentals, since 2023, due to various factors such as weak economic expectations, downgraded interest rates, lower interest rates on stock mortgages, and rising capital interest rates, etc., the revenue and PPOP growth rate of listed banks have continued to slow, but benefiting from the continued consolidation of asset quality by banks over the past few years, impairment losses have been reduced year-on-year, providing some support for the growth rate of net profit. As for market performance, the second half of 2023 was mainly divided into two segments. The “small market capitalization, urban agricultural business” market (June to end of August 23) and the “high dividend market” continued to be interpreted (September 23 to date). Overall, the yield of major state-owned banks was clearly better than other sectors.

Macroeconomic environment outlook: New fiscal balance and new monetary paradigm. Nominal GDP is still low. It is expected that the macro leverage ratio will achieve a new balance, explicit government leverage in place of hidden platform leverage and the land finance gap will be the main path leading to a new balance. Under the new fiscal balance environment, it is expected that the real rate of return will gradually stabilize, thus driving the stabilization of marginal loan interest rates. Monetary policy: Under neutral expectations, there will be two downgrades in 24 years. From a longer-term perspective, there is a possibility that the central bank will restart open market debt buying as a monetary policy tool in the next year or two. Credit: Under the requirements of revitalizing stocks and smoothing the pace, it is expected that the increase in credit growth will be limited in 2014, and the pace will be relatively backward. Finances: Government debt continues to be high, and the pace is ahead. Social finance: The growth rate of social finance in '24 showed an N-shaped trend. The growth rate at the end of the year was roughly the same as in '23. Focus on credit expansion constraints caused by hidden debt management that may be brought about by localized debt management.

Industry sentiment outlook: Scale: The growth rate of credit growth is expected to be limited in '24, the pace is relatively backward, sector differentiation, and asset restructuring will continue. Interest spreads: The 23Q4 interest rate spread is still under downward pressure. The inflection point is expected to be in 24Q1. Focus on economic recovery and the results of lower deposit listing interest rates. Revenue: Handling fees increased under pressure throughout the year 23, and the impact of industry fee cuts continued in '24. Attention should be paid to the recovery in macroeconomic expectations and capital market recovery. Other non-interest income: Liquidity has returned, and it is difficult for other non-interest income to increase. However, due to the low base in 23Q4, a single quarter may make a positive profit contribution. Next year, other non-interest income levels are expected to return to normal, and the year-on-year growth rate will continue to decline. Asset quality is expected to remain stable, but credit costs have declined to a low level, and subsequent performance contributions are likely to subside. Weimu's net profit and revenue growth rates continued to decline during the year, and 24Q1 is expected to be at an inflection point.

Investment advice: Q4 focuses on phased opportunities for urban commercial banks. The logic of high dividends is expected to restart in the first half of next year. In '23, the “performance growth rate was poor” in bank fundamentals transactions, and “low institutional holdings” were sought in terms of transactions. The industry showed a synchronization between the convergence of performance growth and the convergence of valuations. Major state-owned banks obtained better absolute and relative returns from their steady performance and low institutional holdings. Aggregate demand stabilized in the first half of next year, and relatively matched credit supply, financial market turbulence intensified. The market is likely to return to the pattern of structured opportunities for major banks and flexible banks, and the sector's systemic beta opportunities are likely to be concentrated in the first half of the year. Overfall rebound, recovery attacks, and high dividend revaluations point to three main directions of focus.

Risk warning: (1) economic performance falls short of expectations; (2) financial risk exceeds expectations; (3) policy implementation falls short of expectations; (4) the impact of the new capital regulations exceeds expectations.