Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited (HKG:512) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. After all, the share price is down 26% in the last three years, significantly under-performing the market.
On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$528m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
Check out our latest analysis for Grand Pharmaceutical Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Although the share price is down over three years, Grand Pharmaceutical Group actually managed to grow EPS by 20% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.
Revenue is actually up 18% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Grand Pharmaceutical Group more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Grand Pharmaceutical Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Grand Pharmaceutical Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Grand Pharmaceutical Group, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Grand Pharmaceutical Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 21% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Grand Pharmaceutical Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.