The Zhitong Finance App learned that within a few hours before the most important shareholder vote for Origin Energy Ltd. (OGFGF.US) acquisition offer, the Australian government suddenly announced a plan to accelerate the promotion of renewable energy, making the controversial $10.6 billion acquisition target Origin Energy (Origin Energy), the long-term valuation of which is even more vague. As the Australian government suddenly announces a clean energy plan, the direction of the takeover tug of war between Origin Energy's major shareholders and the acquisition consortium led by Brookfield (BAM.US) and EIG Global Energy Partners is becoming more and more difficult to judge.

It is reported that the Australian government announced a plan on Thursday to fund 32GW of new wind, solar and battery projects. Two energy experts said this could stimulate the investment scale of at least 30 billion Australian dollars (about 20 billion US dollars) in Australia. However, no specific figures were announced in the announcement.

Origin is the second largest producer of electricity in the Australian electricity market. The plan announced by the Australian government can be described as reshaping the electricity market, disrupting electricity prices, Origin's valuation, future return on investment, and prospects for Origin's existing power plants.

Shortly after the report was published, Origin announced that the acquisition consortium led by Brookfield and EIG had revised the offer at the last minute because it was clear that the majority shareholders of Brookfield would reject the consortium's previous offer. The Origin Board of Directors postponed voting until December 4 to consider the impact of the bid and the 32GW plan.

Origin's prospects are uncertain in the context of the Australian government's new policy, which has caused some investors to say that selling it to bidders makes more sense than ever, but the majority shareholder AustralianSuper is determined to continue holding. According to reports, Origin's largest shareholder, Australia's largest pension fund, AustralianSuper, which holds 15.3% of Origin's shares, has always opposed this major deal, believing that the transaction value is far lower than the long-term value of this Sydney-based utility company.

Max Vickerson, a stock analyst from J.P. Morgan, said that more renewable energy generation will eventually lower electricity prices, squeeze profit margins, and shorten the useful life and life of Origin's existing coal and gas assets. “This move has accelerated the rate of destruction of the value of traditional assets owned by Origin and AGL,” he said. AGL refers to Origin's competitor AGL Energy. “Overall, lower wholesale electricity prices aren't a good thing for Origin.”

However, Vickerson said that the new investment potential brought about by the Australian government plan has weakened asset management giant Brookfield's argument that Origin and other Australian companies need their strong capital to achieve rapid decarbonization.

According to a report recently released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the IEA expects renewable energy generation to account for more than one-third of global power generation by 2024. Based on weather conditions, the IEA predicts that 2024 is likely to be the first year in which global renewable energy generation exceeds coal power generation.

Brookfield has yet to publicly comment on the plan, but an insider close to the asset management company said that providing revenue guarantees for eligible projects would weaken the profits brought by the huge customer base owned by large power generation companies such as Origin.

Tom Leske, director of Churchill Capital, said that if other companies accept the government's underwriting offer, Origin may let other companies build new wind and solar farms and contract electricity for 4.2 million of its customers, saving billions of dollars. Churchill Capital advises event-driven hedge funds. “But the final economic results will be highly variable.” He said.

Pension giant AustralianSuper argues that Origin's shares in Octopus Energy, one of the rapidly growing UK renewable energy giants, natural gas assets, and millions of customers have placed the company in a favorable position in the global energy transition trend.

According to a person familiar with AustralianSuper's ideas, the Australian government's new plan will only strengthen the fund's belief in Origin.

However, Simon Mawhinney, chief investment officer of fund management company Allan Gray, said that the government's plans seem likely to reduce the return on investment. Allan Gray holds about 3% of Origin's shares. He said that more uncertainty would only reinforce the already low price of $9.43 for some shareholders.

“This price is reasonable given our perception of risk and reward prior to the announcement. But the plans introduced by the Australian Government have indeed added a lot of uncertainty.” “This may be good for consumers and the environment, but bad for some utility companies,” Mawhinney said.