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华西证券:优质供给增加、新技术应用为主旋律 新能源汽车有望进入加速渗透阶段

Huaxi Securities: Increased high-quality supply and new technology application as the main theme, new energy vehicles are expected to enter the stage of accelerated penetration

Zhitong Finance ·  11/23/2023 21:38

Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that with the increase in high-quality supply and application of new technology as the main themes, new energy vehicles are expected to enter an accelerated penetration stage with the continuous introduction of new models in the future and the increase in cost performance brought about by the introduction of new batteries, materials, etc.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huaxi Securities released a research report saying that the main theme is the increase in high-quality supply and the application of new technology. With the continuous introduction of new models and the increase in cost performance brought about by the introduction of new batteries, materials, etc., new energy vehicles are expected to enter a stage of accelerated penetration; the determination of overseas electrification is clear, and global NEV development has achieved resonance. Domestic new energy vehicles have achieved a stage of rapid penetration, and the development of the industrial chain has been continuously improved and optimized. The industry has experienced a rapid increase in demand, significant expansion of supply, and optimization of the industry pattern under the self-balance between supply and demand, cultivating a number of relevant suppliers with advantages in cost and performance, and the global competitive advantage continues to be consolidated.

New energy vehicles: Domestic production and sales increased month-on-month in October, and sales in Europe and the US declined month-on-month

In October, the domestic production of new energy vehicles reached 989,000 units, up 29.2% and 12.5%, respectively; achieved sales volume of 956,000 units, up 33.5% and 5.8%, respectively; and the penetration rate reached 33.51%, up 5.01 pct year on year and 1.88 pct over month. In October, eight European countries achieved a total sales volume of 184,000 new energy vehicles, up 9.5% year on year, down 12.2% month on month; penetration rate was 22.6%, down 1.3 pct year on year and 0.1 pct month on month. In October, sales of new energy passenger vehicles (EV+PHEVs) in the US were 118,000 units, up 35.2% year on year and down 12.4% month on month; the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in that month was 9.4%, up 2.3 pct year on year, slightly down 0.3 pct from month to month.

Power batteries: Iron-lithium accounts for 68% of installed capacity, and total exports continued to increase year-on-year

In October, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 39.2 GWh, up 28.3% and 7.6%, respectively, from the same period last month. From January to October, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 294.9GWh, an increase of 31.5% over the previous year; among them, the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 200.7 GWh, an increase of 47.6% over the previous year, accounting for 68.1% of the cumulative total installed capacity; the power battery installed volume of the top 3, top 5, and top 10 power battery companies accounted for 78.7%, 88.4%, and 97.8%, respectively. The industry showed a high concentration trend. In terms of exports, in October, the total battery exports of China's power battery companies were 11.5 GWh, up 34.0% year on year, up 3.8% month on month; from January to October, total exports were 101.2 GWh, up 105.4% year on year.

Charging piles: The number of holdings increased rapidly year-on-year, and the number of public piles of most leading companies continued to rise

As of October 2023, member units within the Alliance reported a total of 2,525,000 public charging stations, an increase of 50.3% over the previous year, including 1.09 million DC charging stations, an increase of 53.5% over the previous year, and 1,435,000 AC charging stations, an increase of 47.9% over the previous year. From January to October 2023, the country's charging infrastructure added a total of 2,744 million units, an increase of 29.4% over the previous year; among them, a total of 728,000 public charging stations were added, an increase of 36.5% over the previous year, and a total of 20170,000 private charging stations were added, an increase of 29.4% over the previous year. The number of public charging stations for most leading operators continues to grow. The cumulative number of public charging stations owned by Te Call/Star Charging/Cloud Express Charging/Xiaoju Charging was 47.66/42.68/41.33/14 million units, up 47.2%/32.9%/80.7%/57.0% respectively from the previous year.

Investment advice:

The main theme is the increase in high-quality supply and the application of new technology. With the continuous introduction of new models and the increase in cost performance brought about by the introduction of new batteries, materials, etc., new energy vehicles are expected to enter a stage of accelerated penetration; the determination of overseas electrification is clear, and global NEV development has achieved resonance.

Domestic new energy vehicles have achieved a stage of rapid penetration, and the development of the industrial chain has been continuously improved and optimized. The industry has experienced a rapid increase in demand, significant expansion of supply, and optimization of the industry pattern under the self-balance between supply and demand, cultivating a number of relevant suppliers with advantages in cost and performance, and the global competitive advantage continues to be consolidated.

In the future, Huaxi Securities focuses on the following investment logic:

1) Looking at the pattern, the focus is on supply-side optimization, bottoming out of industry profits, and removal of backward production capacity brought about by falling leading cost advantages. We are optimistic that profit levels have bottomed out or are expected to experience an inflection point, and that profitability leads the high-quality target of industry recovery.

2) From a global perspective, overseas markets provide incremental amounts, and are optimistic about the global strategy of lithium batteries. Manufacturers with international supply capabilities and pioneering overseas production capacity are expected to benefit from the development of global electrification.

3) In terms of consumer electronics, the focus is on the recovery of the consumer electronics industry. Under multiple factors catalyzed by artificial intelligence represented by ChatGPT, smart hardware such as MR products and AIPIN, and new mobile phone products such as Huawei and Xiaomi, the consumer electronics related industry chain is expected to continue to benefit.

4) In terms of new technology, technological innovation is one of the core factors driving the rapid development of new energy vehicles, and is expected to bring about improvements in performance, cost, and safety in various aspects. New technology directions include new technology applications such as composite collectors, fast charging, lithium manganese iron phosphate, and sodium-ion batteries.

5) In terms of energy supplementation, continuous improvement of charging and switching facilities, charging modules, whole piles, operation, etc.

6) In terms of hydrogen energy and two-wheelers, hydrogen energy, two-wheelers and other sectors are expected to develop rapidly, driven by policies and demand.

Risk warning:

New energy vehicle industry policy changes; demand for new energy vehicles falls short of expectations; global NEV development falls short of expectations; supply and demand patterns deteriorate; prices of upstream raw materials fluctuate sharply; changes in technology routes, new technology development falls short of expectations; risks of overseas policy changes, etc.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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