share_log

Is Anhui Conch Cement (HKG:914) A Risky Investment?

Is Anhui Conch Cement (HKG:914) A Risky Investment?

安徽海螺水泥(HKG: 914)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/21 17:56

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (HKG:914) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

有人說,作爲投資者,波動性而不是債務是考慮風險的最佳方式,但沃倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”因此,當你評估公司的風險時,聰明的貨幣似乎知道債務——通常與破產有關——是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司(HKG: 914)確實有債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

When Is Debt A Problem?

債務何時會成爲問題?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務可以爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東才能控制債務。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可以成爲一個非常好的工具。考慮公司債務水平的第一步是將其現金和債務一起考慮。

Check out our latest analysis for Anhui Conch Cement

查看我們對安徽海螺水泥的最新分析

What Is Anhui Conch Cement's Net Debt?

安徽海螺水泥的淨負債是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2023 Anhui Conch Cement had CN¥26.2b of debt, an increase on CN¥20.2b, over one year. However, it does have CN¥69.5b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of CN¥43.3b.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年9月,安徽海螺水泥在一年內有262億元人民幣的債務,比20.2億元人民幣增加了人民幣。但是,它確實有695億元人民幣的現金抵消了這一點,因此淨現金爲4,33億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:914 Debt to Equity History November 21st 2023
香港交易所:914 債權與股權歷史記錄 2023 年 11 月 21 日

How Healthy Is Anhui Conch Cement's Balance Sheet?

安徽海螺水泥的資產負債表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Anhui Conch Cement had liabilities of CN¥31.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥19.4b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥69.5b in cash and CN¥20.6b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥39.6b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

縱觀最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,安徽海螺水泥在12個月內到期的負債爲311億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲194億元人民幣。抵消這一點的是,它有695億元人民幣的現金和206億元人民幣的應收賬款,這些應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有39.6億元人民幣 更多 流動資產超過總負債。

This surplus strongly suggests that Anhui Conch Cement has a rock-solid balance sheet (and the debt is of no concern whatsoever). On this view, lenders should feel as safe as the beloved of a black-belt karate master. Succinctly put, Anhui Conch Cement boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種盈餘有力地表明,安徽海螺水泥的資產負債表堅如磐石(債務不成問題)。基於這種觀點,貸款人應該像黑帶空手道大師心愛的人一樣感到安全。簡而言之,安徽海螺水泥擁有淨現金,因此可以說它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Anhui Conch Cement if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 54% cut to EBIT over the last year. Falling earnings (if the trend continues) could eventually make even modest debt quite risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Anhui Conch Cement's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

如果管理層無法阻止去年削減54%的息稅前利潤重演,那麼債務負擔的適度可能對安徽海螺水泥至關重要。收益下降(如果這種趨勢持續下去)最終也可能使即使是適度的債務也變得相當危險。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,將決定安徽海螺水泥未來保持健康資產負債表能力的,最重要的是未來的收益。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. While Anhui Conch Cement has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the last three years, Anhui Conch Cement reported free cash flow worth 11% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.

最後,儘管稅務員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。儘管安徽海螺水泥的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去三年中,安徽海螺水泥公佈的自由現金流佔其息稅前收益的11%,這確實相當低。這種低迷的現金轉換水平削弱了其管理和償還債務的能力。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Anhui Conch Cement has CN¥43.3b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we don't have any problem with Anhui Conch Cement's use of debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Anhui Conch Cement that you should be aware of.

儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在這種情況下,安徽海螺水泥擁有433億元人民幣的淨現金和看上去不錯的資產負債表。因此,我們對安徽海螺水泥使用債務沒有任何異議。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中——遠非如此。例如,我們已經爲安徽海螺水泥確定了兩個警告標誌,你應該注意。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論