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海通证券:当前地产板块市值占比与经济价值不完全对等 存在价值重估空间

Haitong Securities: The current share of market capitalization in the real estate sector is not fully equivalent to economic value, and there is room for value revaluation

Zhitong Finance ·  11/21/2023 09:15

The year-on-year decline in real estate development investment increased from January to October 2023

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that from January to October 2023, the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment increased, and the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales increased. Since the Politburo meeting in July, different types of cities have responded to the relevant requirements put forward by the conference. December will enter the Central Economic Work Conference. The market is paying close attention to the “three major projects” and other government direct investment directions. As the role of real estate in stabilizing the economy will be re-integrated into the policy vision, the current share of the market value of the sector is not exactly equal to the economic value, so there is room for revaluation.

▍ The main views of Haitong Securities are as follows:

Data focus for January-October 2023:

Real estate development investment from January to October 2023 decreased by 9.3% year on year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to January-September 2023.

Monthly data focus for October 2023:

Judging from the data for the month of October 2023, the completed amount of industry development investment in October 2023 was 865.3 billion yuan, down 16.55% from September 2023; commercial housing sales data was 809.1 billion yuan, down 25.85% from September 2023; commercial housing area data was 77.73 million square meters, down 28.41% from September 2023; the source of development capital was 927.8 billion yuan, down 15.28% from September 2023; the new construction area was 70.54 million square meters, down 15.28% from September 2023; 14.31%; The completed area was 64.46 million square meters, up 29.46% from September 2023.

The year-on-year decline in newly started area narrowed, and the year-on-year increase in completed area increased.

From January to October 2023, the housing construction area was 8.229 billion square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and an increase of 0.2 percentage points over January-September 2023. From January to October 2023, the new housing construction area was 792 million square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points narrower than in January-September 2023. From January to October 2023, the completed housing area was 552 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and the increase was 0.8 percentage points narrower than in January-September 2023.

The capital available to housing enterprises increased negatively year on year, and the decline widened.

From January to October 2023, the country's total real estate capital sources reached 10.73 trillion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over January-September 2023. Judging from the composition of total funding sources from January to October 2023, domestic loans accounted for 12.2% of real estate funding sources, use of foreign capital accounted for 0.03%, self-financing accounted for 32.4%, and other capital accounted for 55.34%.

The cumulative decline in real estate sales area increased, and the decline in sales increased.

The commercial housing sales area from January to October 2023 was 926 million square meters, a cumulative decrease of 7.8% over 2022, and an increase of 0.3 percentage points over January-September 2023. Commercial housing sales from January to October 2023 were 9.71 trillion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 4.9% over 2022, and an increase of 0.3 percentage points over January-September 2023.

Judging from the commercial residential segment sales data: from January to October 2023, the sales area of first-tier cities rose year on year and the growth rate narrowed, and the sales amount increased year on year; the sales area of second-tier cities fell year on year and the decline increased, and the sales amount fell year on year and the decline narrowed; the sales area and sales value of third- and fourth-tier cities both declined year on year and the decline increased.

Favorable policies await the effects of the release of their effects, and maintain the policy space to continuously expand judgment.

From January to October 2023, the year-on-year decline in real estate development investment increased, and the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales increased. Since the Politburo meeting in July, different types of cities have responded to the relevant requirements put forward by the conference. December will enter the Central Economic Work Conference. The market is paying close attention to the “three major projects” and other government direct investment directions. As the role of real estate in stabilizing the economy will be re-integrated into the policy vision, the current share of the market value of the sector is not exactly equal to the economic value, so there is room for revaluation.

Investment advice:

Maintain a “better than the market” rating. The general environment of steady market growth has not changed, and the advantages and value of high-quality companies over other housing enterprises will become more prominent.

Risk warning:

The industry faces the risk of policies falling short of expectations and downside fundamentals.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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