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Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE:FVRR) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Simply Wall St ·  11/16/2023 21:38

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Fiverr International fair value estimate is US$45.62
  • Fiverr International is estimated to be 46% undervalued based on current share price of US$24.75
  • Analyst price target for FVRR is US$35.18 which is 23% below our fair value estimate

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE:FVRR) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Fiverr International

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$83.5m US$97.3m US$107.6m US$116.2m US$123.5m US$129.8m US$135.3m US$140.2m US$144.6m US$148.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x2 Est @ 10.54% Est @ 8.04% Est @ 6.30% Est @ 5.07% Est @ 4.22% Est @ 3.62% Est @ 3.20% Est @ 2.91%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.8% US$76.7 US$82.2 US$83.5 US$82.9 US$80.9 US$78.1 US$74.8 US$71.3 US$67.6 US$63.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$762m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$149m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.8%– 2.2%) = US$2.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.3b÷ ( 1 + 8.8%)10= US$989m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.8b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$24.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 46% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
NYSE:FVRR Discounted Cash Flow November 16th 2023

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Fiverr International as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.088. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Fiverr International

Strength
  • Net debt to equity ratio below 40%.
  • Balance sheet summary for FVRR.
Weakness
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Expected to breakeven next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Is FVRR well equipped to handle threats?

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Fiverr International, we've put together three additional aspects you should assess:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Fiverr International is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
  2. Future Earnings: How does FVRR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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