Today is shaping up negative for Revance Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVNC) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Revance Therapeutics from its eleven analysts is for revenues of US$333m in 2024 which, if met, would be a huge 55% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 56% to US$2.06 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$383m and US$1.82 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Revance Therapeutics
The consensus price target fell 20% to US$28.50, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Revance Therapeutics' valuation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Revance Therapeutics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 42% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 68% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Revance Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Revance Therapeutics. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
As you can see, the analysts clearly aren't bullish, and there might be good reason for that. We've identified some potential issues with Revance Therapeutics' financials, such as dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 2 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.
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