Even though Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF ) posted strong earnings, investors appeared to be underwhelmed. We have done some analysis and have found some comforting factors beneath the profit numbers.
See our latest analysis for Xponential Fitness
Zooming In On Xponential Fitness' Earnings
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
Over the twelve months to September 2023, Xponential Fitness recorded an accrual ratio of -0.18. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$40m, well over the US$5.43m it reported in profit. Xponential Fitness shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Xponential Fitness' Profit Performance
As we discussed above, Xponential Fitness' accrual ratio indicates strong conversion of profit to free cash flow, which is a positive for the company. Because of this, we think Xponential Fitness' underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! And one can definitely find a positive in the fact that it made a profit this year, despite losing money last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you want to do dive deeper into Xponential Fitness, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. Be aware that Xponential Fitness is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those are potentially serious...
This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Xponential Fitness' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.