The Zhitong Finance app learned that Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 0.4%, and the three major indices fell rapidly after opening high in early trading, then turned green and declined. Since then, they have shown a weak and volatile trend throughout the day. By the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.17% or 29.35 points to 17396.86 points, with a full day turnover of HK$76.78 billion; the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index fell 0.41% to 5964.54 points; and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.74% to 3951.75 points.

Guoxin Securities pointed out that the current price/performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks is on par with that of the end of May this year, and the rationality of going long has further improved. If you want to pursue the ultimate bottom search, the ERP model suggests a 95% win rate point of 16,200 points. It believes that this point is unattainable; on the one hand, it may not actually be possible to reach it; on the other hand, even if the Hang Seng Index reaches this point, the opportunity is fleeting; in the end, 17,200 points will still be a good cost level. Therefore, the bank is still optimistic about the current price/performance ratio of going long on Hong Kong stocks.

Blue chip stock performance

China Resources Land (01109) led the blue chip. At the close, it rose 3.72% to HK$29.3, with a turnover of HK$363 million, contributing 5.5 points to the Hang Seng Index. Citi previously pointed out that there is room for improvement in Rundi's annual conservative sales target, mainly due to the company's sufficient new sales in the fourth quarter (partly driven by land acquisition in the first half of this year) and a moderate rebound in sales volume in major cities due to short-term policies (October Golden Week sales increased to about 11 billion yuan year-on-year).

In terms of other blue-chip stocks, Hengan International (01044) rose 2.84% to HK$27.15, contributing 0.84 points to the Hang Seng Index; Xinao Energy (02688) rose 2.53% to HK$58.75, contributing 1.85 points to the Hang Seng Index; Alibaba-SW (09988) fell 1.8% to HK$79.2, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 23.58 points; Xinyi Glass (00868) fell 1.21% to HK$9.01, dragging down the Hang Seng Index by 0.38 points.

In terms of popular sectors

On the market, most of the large technology stocks are green, and sectors such as sporting goods, film and television entertainment, biomedicine, restaurants, and non-ferrous metals registered the highest declines; on the other side, most of the housing and property management stocks picked up today, while gas stocks, Chinese brokerage stocks, and photovoltaic stocks were ahead of the increase.

1. Most of the domestic housing and property management stocks rose.At the close, Yuexiu Real Estate (00123) rose 8.61% to HK$7.44; Greentown China (03900) rose 3.86% to HK$8.08; Xincheng Yue Service (01755) rose 3.49% to HK$3.85; and Hejing Youhuo (03913) rose 3.16% to HK$0.49.

Last week, four ministries and commissions, including the central bank, held a housing enterprise financing symposium to learn about the real estate industry's capital situation and corporate financing needs. The Shenzhen State Assets Administration Commission expressed support for Vanke. Dongwu Securities pointed out that it is expected that in the future, supply-side policies will gradually advance from “insurance projects” to “insurance entities,” and that financing support for high-quality private housing enterprises will increase. It is recommended to focus on housing enterprises with abundant land reserves, a layout focused on core cities, and good credit qualifications. They are expected to be the first to benefit from market recovery and policy relaxation in the future; at the same time, as the impact of the epidemic fades and brings profit recovery, property stocks are expected to experience a double blow in valuation+performance. CITIC Securities believes that the delivery guarantee policy has achieved results, the vicious cycle in the real estate industry has been gradually broken, corporate credit has passed a watershed moment, and risks are gradually calming down.

2. Chinese brokerage stocks rallied collectively.At the close, China Financial Corporation (03908) rose 3% to HK$13.74; Guotai Junan (02611) rose 2.09% to HK$9.26; Shenwan Hongyuan (06806) rose 2.03% to HK$1.51; and Guolian Securities (01456) rose 1.88% to HK$3.79.

On November 13, China Galaxy and CICC issued clarification announcements one after another, stating that the company is concerned about market rumors that China Galaxy will merge and restructure CICC. In order to avoid misleading all sectors of society and investors, the clarification has now been provided. According to industry insiders, the rumor of the merger and restructuring of the two did not “come out of nowhere.” The two brokerage firms, Galaxy of China and China Financial Corporation, have the same shareholder background, complementary business, and mutual transfer of executives.

According to reports, the China Securities Regulatory Commission is once again sending a signal to build a first-class investment bank, bringing once again an opportunity for brokerage integration. Recently, there have been four rumors of mergers, acquisitions and restructuring in the securities industry. Currently, more than 10 brokerage firms have responded and clarified. Fangzheng Securities believes that the number of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry is expected to be concentrated and continue to increase within the next 1 to 2 years. In addition to competitive cases in the same industry such as “Guolian Securities+Minsheng Securities” and “Huacheng Securities+Pacific Securities”, it is expected that the number of mergers and acquisitions will continue to increase in the future.

3. Gas stocks were higher in the afternoon.At the close, China Resources Gas (01193) rose 3.73% to HK$25; Xinao Energy (02688) rose 2.53% to HK$58.75; Kunlun Energy (00135) rose 2.32% to HK$7.07; and China Gas (00384) rose 1.39% to HK$7.29.

Cinda Securities pointed out that since this year, there has been a restorative increase in natural gas consumption under the recovery of the domestic economy. The supply of upstream gas sources is relatively sufficient, the reform of the downstream natural gas price mechanism has accelerated, and the price situation has continued to improve, jointly promoting the increase in gas sales volume of urban combustion companies and the recovery of gas sales price spreads. At the same time, as international gas prices have bottomed out and rebounded, overseas long-term cooperative resale profits are expected to resume in 2023Q4 and 2024. Overall, the bank is optimistic about the month-on-month improvement in the profit contribution of resale, as well as the performance growth and valuation recovery of urban fuel companies. Damo said that since organic growth in natural gas demand is more sustainable, Runner should benefit from it, while Kunlun Energy is the bank's first choice in the industry because it is the most defensive against falling connection fees.

4. Auto stocks are generally on the rise today.At the close, Xiaopeng Motor-W (09868) rose 3.36% to HK$63; Brilliance China (01114) rose 2.85% to HK$3.97; Great Wall Motor (02333) rose 2.57% to HK$11.18; and Ideal Car-W (02015) rose 1.61% to HK$151.2.

According to the latest retail sales statistics from the Passenger Transport Federation, retail sales in the narrow sense of the domestic passenger car market reached 2,033 million units in October, up 10.2% year on year and 0.7% month on month; cumulative sales volume in January-October was 17.267 million units, up 3.2% year on year. Haitong Securities pointed out that as the auto market enters the peak Q4 season, industry revenue and net profit are expected to improve month-on-month. Bank International said that given the low base in November last year, the year-on-year increase in retail sales in November is expected to expand, which is expected to exceed 20%. In a situation where the auto market is recovering well, car companies' confidence in achieving their annual goals has increased. The bank maintained its forecast of 21.7 million passenger car sales for the year.

5. Sporting goods stocks continued to decline.At the close, Xtebo International (01368) fell 16.49% to HK$5.37; 361 (01361) fell 2.44% to HK$3.59; and Taobo (06110) fell 1.21% to HK$6.52.

Nomura pointed out that in 2023, Double Eleven sales were sluggish, and total GMV increased 20% year over year. However, the year-on-year growth rate of its core brands was only high in single digits, lower than the 16%-19% increase in the third quarter of this year, which is disappointing. At the same time, the discount strength during the promotion period increased year on year, but the return rate was higher than last year. The bank also expects competition to intensify, which will affect the fourth quarter of FY2023 and FY2024 performance. Furthermore, Omo pointed out that overall market performance is weak, and the industry's outlook for the fourth quarter is bleak. Growth forecasts may have to be revised downward. Growth of some major brands or retailers in the first quarter of next year is more likely to be weak or even record a slight decline. According to the bank, competition in the industry may become intense next year. Currently, it still believes that the valuation of China's sporting goods industry is attractive, and there is huge room for long-term growth, but in the short term, the outlook for the next 6 to 12 months is uncertain.

hotChange of shares

1. Angels of the Times(06699)Move higher throughout the day,At the close, it rose 5.98% to HK$61.15.

Recently, in response to category III cases of insufficient maxillary development during tooth replacement between 6-12 years of age, Time Angel launched a new generation of KiD pre-traction solutions based on self-developed angel hook technology. Using integrated molding production technology, no additional processing by a dentist is required.

2. Huahong Semiconductor(01347)Significant increase,At the close, it rose 5.82% to HK$18.56.

Orient Securities pointed out that as the production capacity of the Huahong Wuxi 12-inch production line project climbed, by the end of the third quarter, the company's eight-inch monthly production capacity had increased to 358,000 pieces. While it had larger production capacity, it also provided stronger support for the development and launch of new products.

3. Sinotruk(03808)Continuing gains,At the close, it rose 4.85% to HK$15.58.

According to data from the China Automobile Association (corporate invoicing volume, non-terminal sales volume, same below), in October 2023, the heavy truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold 811,000 vehicles, a decrease of 5% over the previous month and an increase of 69% over the previous year. Among them, Sinotruk ranked first with a record of 18,500 vehicles.

4. Corning Jerry Pharmaceuticals-B(09966)Stock prices have plummeted,At the close, it was down 22.59% to HK$9.63.

Bank International said earlier that the release of multiple NSCLC treatment data for KN046 and Kangfang Biotech's AK112 non-head-to-head comparison showed that KN046 had no obvious advantage. The bank believes that there is considerable room for KN046 indications to expand, but the prospects for NSCLC treatment are uncertain.