海通证券汽车业三季报总结:盈利能力短期承压 Q4旺季收入和净利润有望迎环比改善

Summary of the third quarterly report of the automobile industry of Haitong Securities: Profitability is under short-term pressure, Q4 peak season revenue and net profit are expected to improve month-on-month

Zhitong Finance ·  11/14/2023 11:29

The price war in the Q3 industry affected profitability. New energy vehicles continued to grow, and revenue and net profit increased.

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Haitong Securities released a research report saying that in 2023Q1-Q3, overall sales in the automobile market showed a weak recovery. In 2023Q3, the industry's net profit declined significantly year on year, mainly due to loss of profitability in the passenger car sector under the price war. The bank expects that as the car market enters the Q4 peak season, industry revenue and net profit are expected to improve month-on-month. The commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline in 2021-2022, with strong year-on-year sales performance in 2023Q1-Q3. Maintain the automotive industry's “superior to market” rating in 2023. Focus on: 1) Focus on recommending the procyclical heavy truck sector; 2) The passenger car sector focuses on changes in sales and profit; 3) the parts industry focuses on import substitution and smart electric networking empowerment.

The views of Haitong Securities are as follows:

The 2023Q1-Q3 domestic automobile sales volume was 11.07 million units, +8.2% year-on-year, and the year-on-year performance of passenger cars was weaker than that of the automobile industry as a whole.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023Q3, the automobile manufacturing industry achieved total revenue of 2621.9 billion yuan in a single quarter, +4.0%, a slight increase over the previous year, achieving a total profit of 128.4 billion yuan, -18.7%; the industry's sales profit margin (total profit/total operating income) was 4.9%, and the total three rates were about 5.3%. Compared with the same period in 2022, the bank's judgment was mainly due to factors such as the industry price war.

The 2023Q3 industry price war affected profitability. New energy vehicles continued to grow, and revenue and net profit increased.

The passenger car sector's Q3 revenue was -29.8%, net profit margin -84.2%, gross profit margin and net profit margin declined; the passenger car sector's Q3 revenue ratio was +10.2%, net profit was converted year over year; the truck subsector's profitability was restored, Q3 revenue was +24.6%, net profit margin +144.6%, gross profit margin and net profit margin increased by +6.8%, net profit margin of 1%, net profit margin There was a decline; the dealer subsector's Q3 revenue was -13.8% year-on-year, and net profit went to the mother's net profit Compared with -223.7%, gross margin declined slightly, and net profit margin increased; sales in the NEV subsector maintained a high growth trend, with Q3 revenue +15.8% and net profit of -21.9%.

The 2023Q1-Q3 market valuation is hovering in the middle. Against this background, the overall valuation performance of the automotive sector is poor, but there are still differences.

The valuations of the passenger car, truck, and bus sectors were pulled back. After the valuation of the parts sector was raised in Q2, there was a decline in Q3, and the valuation of the dealer sector hovered at a high level. The bank believes that in a horizontal comparison of various industry sectors, the 2023Q1-Q3 automobile sector valuation level is clearly at an upper-middle level. The main reason is that Q3 automobile production and sales are booming and the overall valuation level of the sector is rising.

Risk warning:Risk of vehicle sales falling short of expectations; risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices; risk of large fluctuations in exchange rates.

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