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中金:10月二手房成交量整体仍较为景气

CICC: Overall second-hand housing turnover in October was still relatively prosperous

Zhitong Finance ·  11/13/2023 15:12

The stock housing market showed “price for volume” characteristics in October

The Zhitong Finance app learned that CICC released a research report saying,The overall volume of second-hand housing transactions in October was still quite prosperousHowever, indicators such as bargaining space and listing prices all indicate that the market has “price for volume” characteristics, and price expectations are still weak; looking ahead, although supply is gradually returning to stability, further strength in demand support policies is still the key to improving expectations, including the adjustment of restrictive policies and the advancement of urban village reform. Leading targets with good fundamentals and valuation advantages are recommended; after the economic recovery becomes more stable, it can be further expanded to high-quality non-state-owned enterprises.

▍ The main views of CICC are as follows:

The stock housing market in October showed “price for volume” characteristics, and strengthening demand support policies may still be the key to stabilizing price expectations.

In terms of quantity, the second-hand housing turnover index remained flat and fell slightly by 2% month-on-month in October, and the year-on-year increase widened marginally to +32% (+27% in September); considering the long holidays in October, the overall turnover performance was relatively favorable, and the cumulative increase in turnover volume from year to date was +44%. In terms of prices, the China-Gold Homogenous Second-hand Housing Transaction Price Index still fell 1.3% month-on-month in October, and the decline was basically the same as in September (-1.4%);

Specifically, judging from the trend where the margin of bargaining space for transactions is clearly widening (October 5.22% vs. September 4.88%), the change in bargaining balance between buyers and sellers brought about by the sharp increase in listing volume in September is quite obvious. Sellers are promoting transactions by accepting larger price concessions, that is, “price for volume”; looking ahead, if they hope to push the decline in transaction prices to a marginal slowdown, further demand support policies are needed. In October, the frequency and strength of relevant policies declined marginally.

The month-on-month increase in second-hand housing listings slowed down in October, but the marginal decline in listing prices accelerated.

In terms of listing volume, cities with significant increases in listing volume were detected in September, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Changsha, and Qingdao. The increase in listing volume in October has slowed down (+3.9% in October vs. +12.7% in September), and supply in the second-hand housing market is gradually returning to stability.

In terms of listing prices, the month-on-month decline in the CICC homogeneous second-hand housing listing price index widened to -1.4% in October (-0.7% in September), and the price adjustment range for listed properties also marginally widened by 37BP to -3.92%. The pressure of price expectations has gradually spread from price discounts at the transaction end to more advanced listing prices.

In the context of supply gradually returning to stability, the key variable in the current market is still demand. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to relevant policy developments.

The rental market continued to have off-season characteristics in October, and the rent-to-sale ratio was marginally flat.

In October, the CICC Homogeneity Listed Rental Index fell 0.7% month-on-month, which was basically the same as the decline in September (-0.6%). It continued to show off-season characteristics, with a year-on-year decline of 0.8%; however, since the overall listing price was also declining, the rent-to-sale ratio remained at 2.01%. The margin of the rental cycle in October continued to rise slightly to 2.16 months.

The overall volume of second-hand housing transactions in October was still quite prosperous, but indicators such as bargaining space and listing prices all showed that the market had “price for volume” characteristics, and price expectations were still weak; looking ahead, although supply gradually returned to stability, the further strength of demand support policies was still the key to improving expectations, including the adjustment of restrictive policies and the advancement of urban village reform. Leading targets with good fundamentals and valuation advantages are recommended; after the economic recovery becomes more stable, it can be further expanded to high-quality non-state-owned enterprises.

risks

Policy implementation and fundamental repairs fell short of expectations; the credit of housing enterprises deteriorated at an accelerated pace.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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