美股收盘 | 鲍威尔冲击未持续,芯片股高涨力挺美股反弹,纳指涨超2%,英伟达八连阳

US stocks closed | Powell's impact did not last. High growth in chip stocks supported the rebound in US stocks, the NASDAQ rose more than 2%, and Nvidia's eight consecutive days

wallstreetcn ·  11/11/2023 09:32

Source: Wall Street News

The Nasdaq rose more than 2% to hit the biggest increase in five months, the S&P Dow index rose more than 1%, and the three major stock indexes rose for two weeks; the chip stock index rose 4%, and its sector led S&P; Nvidia recorded the longest consecutive day of growth in more than seven months; and Microsoft rose more than 2%, reaching a record high on the third day of this week. The China Securities Index reversed four consecutive declines, and Xiaopeng Motor fell by more than 4%.

After US consumer inflation expectations were announced, the two-year US bond yield, which had fallen below 5.0% in the intraday period, rose to a one-week high, and rebounded by more than 20 basis points this week; the US dollar index rose to a one-week high; the yen approached a one-year low; the offshore renminbi fell 7.30 in two consecutive days; and Ethereum hit a seven-month high, rising more than 10% in a week. Crude oil has rebounded over the past few days and is still falling for three weeks, falling more than 4% in a week. Gold recorded its biggest daily decline in nearly four months, the first weekly decline in five weeks since the Arab-Israeli conflict; palladium continued to hit a five-year low, falling more than 10% in a week.

The impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawk did not seem to last. US stocks rebounded the day after Powell's hawkish speech. The NASDAQ recorded its best single-day performance in five months, and major stock indexes were able to continue to rise throughout the week. Chip stocks have become the main upward driver. After the news that China will release three new chips, Nvidia continued to enter gains since November, marking the longest continuous increase since late March.

The speeches of several Fed officials this week poured cold water on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts next year, but the main US stock indexes continued to rise. As of Thursday, Powell said he was not confident that monetary policy had been tightened enough, and he would not hesitate to raise interest rates if necessary. After the US stock index has been rising for many days recently, Powell's statement became the last straw to catalyze the retracement of US stocks.

According to a University of Michigan survey released in early US stock trading on Friday, the initial value of long-term inflation expectations for US consumers in November did not stabilize as expected, but instead rose to a new high since 2011. High interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook caused consumer confidence to unexpectedly drop sharply, falling for four months in a row.

After consumer inflation expectations were announced, the price of US bonds fell, and yields staged a V-shaped rebound, leveling off the intraday decline and reversing. The interest-sensitive two-year US Treasury yield fell below 5.0% in the intraday period. After the data was released, it stabilized above 5.0%, breaking the high since the beginning of this month. The yield rebounded sharply throughout the week, reflecting in part the impact of Powell's speech; the US dollar index rose and rose during the intraday period, hitting 106 for the first time in a week. Although it has since declined, it has continued to rebound throughout the week.

The speeches of European and American central bank officials on Friday did not all send hawkish signals: ECB President Lagarde said that inflation in the Eurozone may rebound after recently falling to a two-year low, but if the ECB keeps interest rates at the current level for at least several quarters, it may still reach the inflation target. If necessary, central bank officials will consider raising interest rates again; Bank of France Governor de Gallo said that unless there is a new impact, there will be no further interest rate hikes, but it is still too early to discuss interest rate cuts; Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic said that Fed policymakers can let interest rates rise further without further interest rate hikes Inflation fell back to target.

Although US stocks have temporarily returned to gains, they are still facing challenges. Some commentators say that if US stocks are to continue to rise thereafter, the bond market needs to calm down. The sharp decline in US bond yields has not benefited the stock market as much as the yield has risen. Moreover, a University of Michigan survey on Friday showed that rising inflation expectations, combined with concerns about the persistence of consumer spending, have made it difficult for Fed policymakers who are debating whether to raise interest rates further.

However, some commentators mentioned the view that vacant positions are still high and that the private sector balance sheet steadily supports a soft landing in the economy. Even if there is still uncertainty about the Fed ending interest rate hikes, the economy is more resilient than previously anticipated, which will help US stocks rise during the year-end period. Furthermore, according to EPFR Global data, the global stock market had an inflow of 8.8 billion US dollars in capital in the week ending this Wednesday. Bank of America believes this reflects the market's optimism because it is expected that US bond yields will fall, and the cautious sentiment that has pervaded US stocks over the past three months has turned to “year-end greed.”

In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen weakened further under the pressure of the US dollar reversal to an intraday rise. It once fell to 151.60, approaching the one-year low set last Tuesday; the offshore renminbi fell below 7.30 in the intraday period for two consecutive days. Fueled by optimism that a Bitcoin spot ETF is expected to be approved, Bitcoin, which hit a new high in a year and a half on Thursday, stabilized above 37,000 US dollars. Another major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, once rose above 2,100 US dollars in the intraday period, continued to hit a new high in seven months, with a sharp increase of double digits over the past week.

Among commodities, risk assets are rising, risk aversion is declining, compounded by Powell's speech to hit expectations that US interest rates will peak. Gold fell sharply on Friday. New York futures recorded their biggest daily decline since mid-April, and failed to continue the weekly upward trend that has continued for a month since the beginning of the Arab-Israeli conflict; palladium continued to hit a new low since 2018, closing below the $1,000 mark for the first time in five years.

International crude oil continued to rebound, breaking further away from its low level since July, but the trend of three weeks of continuous decline did not change. The focus of the oil market is shifting from geopolitical risks to supply and demand. This week's oil prices reflect concerns about China's import and export data, and concerns that the American Petroleum Association (API) announced that U.S. crude oil inventories soared by nearly 12 million barrels last week to increase demand. Some commentators say that the recent decline in oil prices is mainly due to the threat of oversupply. The problem is not a lack of demand, but too much supply.

The NASDAQ rose more than 2%, and the three major stock indexes continued to rise for two weeks, and the chip stock index rose 4%, and Nvidia recorded the longest continuous increase in more than seven months

The gains of the three major US stock indexes that opened high declined somewhat in early trading. At the end of early trading, gains increased collectively, and both rose further in midday trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased to more than 2%, the S&P 500 index rose more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 420 points, and also rose more than 1%. In the end, the three major indices collectively closed higher on the third day of this week. The NASDAQ and S&P rebounded on Thursday after ending their 9-day and 8-day gains, respectively, and the Dow ended two days of decline.

The Nasdaq closed up 2.05%, rising more than 2% in one day for the first time since May 26, to 13798.11 points, a new high since September 14. S&P closed up 1.56% to 4415.24 points, a new high since September 19. The Dow closed up 391.16 points, or 1.15%, to 34283.10 points, a new high since September 20.

S&P regained 4,400 points, leveling off the decline since the Fed's monetary policy meeting in September

The Nasdaq 100 index focuses on technology stocks. It closed up 2.25% and rebounded to the highest level since August 1. Both the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ recorded their biggest gains since May 26. The small-cap stock index Russell, which is dominated by value stocks, closed up 1.07% in 2000 to bid farewell to the low since November 1, which was refreshed for four days in a row.

With the big rebound on Friday, the three major indices all rose for the second week in a row this week, but not as much as last week. The NASDAQ, which rose 6.61% last week, rose 2.37%; S&P, which rose 5.85% last week, rose 1.31%; and the Dow index, which rose 5.07% last week, rose 0.65%, the biggest weekly gain since October 28 last year. The Nasdaq 100, which rose 6.48% last week, rose by 2.85% and continued to rise for two weeks, while Russell 2000, which rose 7.56% last week, fell 3.15%, then retreated after reversing four weeks of continuous decline last week.

Due to the big rebound on Friday, the three major US stock indexes and the Nasdaq 100 all rose again this week, but the small-cap stock index Russell declined in 2000

All major sectors of the S&P 500 rebounded collectively on Friday. Chip stocks and Microsoft's IT closed up about 2.6%, leading the way. Meta and Google's communication services, and essential consumer goods for Tesla and Amazon all rose close to 1.7%. Real estate, materials, industry, finance, and energy also all rose by more than 1%.

A total of six sectors rose rapidly this week. IT rose nearly 4.8%, and the performance was far superior to other sectors. Communications services rose more than 2%, non-essential consumer goods rose 0.9%, industry rose nearly 0.9%, and finance and essential consumer goods rose less than 0.3%. Among the five declining sectors, energy led the decline by 3.8%, reflecting the impact of the decline in crude oil. Real estate and utilities fell by more than 2%, materials fell 1.8%, and health care fell by nearly 1%.

ETF trends in various S&P sectors this week

Chip stocks rebounded sharply after the overall decline on Thursday. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closed up about 4%, breaking new highs since September 14, rising nearly 4% this week and 4.1% per month, respectively. By the close, Nvidia rose nearly 3%, rising for eight days, the longest consecutive day since March 23. Broadcom rose more than 5%, AMD rose more than 4%, Qualcomm rose more than 3%, Intel and Micron Technology rose more than 2%, and Intel and Micron Technology rose more than 2%. The revenue for the first fiscal quarter and EPS earnings were higher than expected, and Synaptics (SYNA), the developer of human-machine interface hardware and software, rose about 10.8%, while Arm, which fell more than 5% on Thursday after the financial report was announced, closed up more than 1%.

Leading technology stocks that fell on Thursday rebounded across the board. Tesla closed up 2.2% and will break away from the closing low since November 1, which has been refreshed for two consecutive days. After rising more than 6% last week, it fell 2.4% this week, making it a rare blue-chip technology stock with a cumulative decline this week.

Among the seven major technology stocks, Tesla had the worst performance this week, Microsoft reached a record high, and its market capitalization began to be close to Apple

Most of FAANMG's top six technology stocks rose more than 2%. Among them, Microsoft closed up nearly 2.5%, hitting an intraday high for the first time since July, and a record closing record high on the third day of this week after Tuesday and Wednesday; Facebook parent company Meta closed up nearly 2.6%, rising for six days, hitting a new high since January last year; Apple closed 2.3%, rebounded to a high level since September 5; and Netflix closed up 2.8%, rebounded to a high level since September 5; Amazon closed 2.1%, rebounded to its highest position since September 14; Google Alphabet's parent company Closed up 1.8 %.

This week, these technology stocks have all risen. Apple is up 5.5%, Microsoft is up about 4.8%, Meta is up 4.5%, Amazon and Netflix are up more than 3%, and Alphabet is up 2.7%.

Including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia, the seven major technology stocks have generally risen 11 days in the past 11 trading days. The total market value during this period surged by 1.3 trillion US dollars. As of Friday, the overall level was high since July.

The seven major technology stocks are generally at the highest level since July. The total market value of the last 11 trading days has surged by 1.3 trillion US dollars

Overall, AI concept stocks rebounded after two consecutive days of decline. By the close, Palantir (PLTR) had risen more than 7%, (SOUN) and Adobe (ADBE) had risen more than 3%, (AI) had risen more than 2%, and (BBAI) had risen more than 1%.

Some of the most popular stock markets followed the general market's rebound. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) turned higher in midday trading and closed up nearly 0.5%, reversing a four-day decline, leaving the low since November 1, and falling about 2.8% this week. The Chinese general ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up close to 0.2% and 2.3%, respectively. By the close, Daxin Energy had risen more than 2%, NetEase had risen 0.8%, Baidu had risen more than 0.7%, Pinduoduo had risen by nearly 0.7%, Alibaba and JD had risen slightly, while Xiaopeng Motor had fallen by more than 4%, NIO had fallen by more than 3%, Ideal Auto had fallen by more than 2%, Station B had fallen nearly 0.3%, and Tencent's fan list had fallen nearly 0.2%.

Among the individual stocks that announced financial reports, third-quarter revenue and global orders fell short of expectations, and Groupon (QRPN), the founder of group purchases that approved the issuance of $80 million shares to common shareholders, closed down 34.8%; the clean energy company Plug Power (PLUG), which announced third-quarter results that were lower than expected and downgraded by RBC and J.P. Morgan Chase, closed down 40.5%; third-quarter revenue was lower than expected, and medical device company Treace Medical Concepts (TMCI), which lowered its full-year revenue guidelines 37.9%; Clean energy battery developer Freyr Battery (FREY), which was downgraded to neutral by BTIG after losses in the third quarter were higher than expected, closed 27.5%; biotech stock Illumina (ILMN), whose third-quarter revenue fell below expectations and lowered its full-year EPS profit guidelines and guidance range below expectations, fell about 8%; the digital marketing company The Trade Desk (TTD), which had weak revenue guidelines for the fourth quarter due to caution from advertisers in the automotive and other industries, closed down 16.7%; although total revenue and profit for the third quarter were lower It was higher than expected, but investors were concerned about EBDITAR earnings related to the Macau business, including restructuring. Gaming and entertainment stock Wynn Resorts (WYNN) closed down 5.7%; while medical technology company Hologic (HOLX), which also had higher revenue and earnings than expected in the third quarter, closed 7.3%.

European stocks, which escaped a robbery due to Powell's speech after closing on Thursday, were not spared on Friday. Coupled with the poor performance of some companies, the pan-European stock index stopped rising twice in a row. The European Stoxx 600 Index closed down 1%, not only falling to a new three-week closing high on Thursday, but also taking back the accumulated gains of the previous few days. The stock indexes of major European countries fell in unison.

Among all sectors, food and beverages closed down nearly 3.1%. LVMH fell 3.8%, Kering fell 3.3%, and Hermès fell by 12.2% due to a 12.2% decline in organic operating profit growth in the first half of this fiscal year. British stocks led the decline in European stock indexes. Swiss stock indexes fell 5.2%, and the personal and household goods sector fell 2.6%. Other luxury giants also fell. LVMH fell 3.8%, Kering fell 3.3%, and Hermès fell 1.6%.

The Stoxx 600 Index declined slightly this week, falling after rising 3.4% last week to the biggest weekly gain since March 31, and failed to rise for two weeks. The performance of national stock indexes varied. German stocks and Western stocks continued to rise for two weeks, and British, French, and Italian stocks, which rebounded last week, fell back.

Among the various sectors, mining stocks led the decline in basic resources by more than 3%, while the interest-sensitive sector, real estate, which was led by more than 12% last week, fell 2.5%. The decline was the highest, highlighting the impact of the recovery after a sharp decline in European bond yields; while industry rose nearly 1.6%, the best performance, and the media also rose more than 1%. Although oil and gas closed 0.3% against the market on Friday, it fell more than 1% throughout the week, falling more than 1% for four weeks.

Two-year US Treasury yields fell below 5.0% in the intraday period and then rebounded to a one-week high by more than 20 basis points this week

European treasury bond prices have rebounded, and yields have rebounded. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the British 10-year benchmark treasury bond closed at 4.33%, up 6 basis points during the day; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German treasury bond closed at 2.71%, rising 7 basis points during the day.

This week, European bond yields rebounded after two weeks of continuous decline, including ECB Vice President Dekindos, who said it is too early to discuss interest rate cuts. Some European and Bank of England officials this week have dampened expectations of interest rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by about 5 basis points cumulatively, falling by about 26 basis points last week when the Bank of England announced the continued suspension of interest rate hikes; the 10-year German bond yield, which fell by about 19 basis points last week, rose by a cumulative total of about 7 basis points, and climbed for the seventh week in the last ten weeks.

US Treasury yields, which rose by more than 10 basis points in the intraday period on Thursday, rebounded in a V-shape in the intraday period. US consumer expectations hit a new low before the announcement, and continued to rise after the announcement. This week's yield climbed cumulatively, ending a two-week decline.

The yield on US 10-year benchmark treasury bonds was close to 4.66% in early Asian trading, and US stocks declined at an accelerated pace before the market. At the beginning of the session, they broke down 4.57% to a new daily low, and fell nearly 6 basis points during the day. There is still a distance from the intraday low since the end of September, which had previously been close to 4.47%. The decline continued to narrow after the announcement of US consumer inflation expectations. At the end of the day, it was about 4.65% at the end of the day. It rose by about 3 basis points during the day, and rose by about 8 basis points during the week.

The overall rise in US bond yields of various matrices this Thursday and Friday, with short-term bond yields rising the most throughout the week

The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 5.04% in early trading in the Asian market, widened and fell below 5.0% in the US stock market. At the beginning of the market, the US stock market fell 4.98% and hit a new daily low. It fell nearly 5 basis points during the day, and is still far from the intraday low since September 1, which was refreshed by 4.80% last Friday. After the announcement of consumer inflation expectations, US stocks rose 5.0% in early trading. At the end of the day, the stock market rose by about 5.06%, a new high since November 1. At the end of the day, the bond market was about 5.06%, up about 4 basis points during the day. It has been rising for three days, with a cumulative increase of about 22 basis points this week.

The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds rose 5.0% on Friday, the biggest weekly increase since May

The US dollar index rose to a one-week high in the intraday period, and Ethereum hit a seven-month high and rose more than 10% in one week

The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, fell below 105.80 to a new daily low before the US stock market, and fell nearly 0.2% during the day. US consumer inflation expectations quickly turned up after the announcement. US stocks hit 106.00 in the short term and hit 106.00 for the first time in a week, breaking the high since last Friday, rising nearly 0.1% during the day and turning down in midday trading.

By the time the US stock market closed on Friday, the US dollar index was slightly below 105.80, down about 0.1% during the day, and rose by about 0.8% this week; the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell nearly 0.2%, rose nearly 0.8% this week, and the US dollar index stopped rising for four days, and rebounded this week after falling sharply to the biggest weekly decline since July.

Among non-US currencies, the yen continued to fall. The US dollar was close to 151.60 against the Japanese yen in the US stock market at noon, approaching the high since October last year when it rose above 151.70 last Tuesday. The offshore renminbi (CNH) generally maintained a decline against the US dollar on Friday. Fluctuations were small compared to Thursday. The Asian market hit a new daily high of 7.2970 when it turned higher for the short term in early trading. After that, it fell 7.30 in the intraday period for the second day in a row. US stocks fell to a fresh low of 7.3076 in early trading, and fell 97 points during the day, and continued to fall below the intraday high since September 15, which was refreshed by 7.27 on Wednesday.

At 5:59 on November 11, Beijing time, the offshore renminbi was 7.3065 yuan against the US dollar. It fell 86 points from the end of Thursday's New York session. It fell for three days in a row. It fell 177 points this week, falling again after ending four weeks of continuous decline last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $37,400 in the US stock market on Friday to a new daily high. Compared with the daily low of European stocks in early trading, it rose more than $1,000 and more than 3%. At the close of the day, US stocks were above $37,300, and rose more than 2% in the last 24 hours. Although it is not close to the high since May last year, which was close to 38,000 US dollars in Thursday's intraday session, it has risen by more than 7% in the last seven days.

After rising above $37,000 this week, Bitcoin climbed to a one-and-a-half-year high and returned to the level before the Terra stablecoin crisis broke out

Ethereum (ETH) has risen above $2,130 in the Asian market, hitting a new high since April for two consecutive days. The US stock market fell $2,100 before the market and climbed back to $2,100 in midday trading. The US stock market closed close to $2,100. It has risen nearly 2% in the last 24 hours, and has accumulated a cumulative increase of nearly 15% in the last 7 days.

This week, Ethereum recorded its best weekly performance since April

Crude oil has rebounded over the past few days and is still falling more than 4% for three weeks

International crude oil futures continued to rebound on Friday, closing higher for two consecutive days after falling for three days.

US WTI crude oil futures for December closed up 1.89% to $77.17 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for January closed up 1.77% to $81.43 per barrel. Both US oil and US oil continued to bid farewell to the closing lows since July 19 and July 17, which were refreshed separately on Wednesday.

This week, U.S. oil fell 4.15%, and crude oil fell 4.08%. It has been falling for three weeks. It is also a continuous weekly decline after two weeks of continuous gains since the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli conflict. This week's cumulative decline is mainly due to China's October import and export data released on Tuesday and closed down more than 4% on the same day, the biggest daily decline since October 4. After the US announced a sharp increase in API crude oil inventories last week, it fell more than 2% on Wednesday.

U.S. crude oil futures rebounded to the 200-day EMA after rebounding for the next two days of this week

US gasoline and gas futures continued to have mixed ups and downs. NYMEX December gasoline futures closed up about 1.3% to $2.19 per gallon, continuing to break away from the low level since December 12 last year, which was refreshed on Wednesday. This week, they fell 0.5% for three weeks; NYMEX December gas futures closed down 0.26% to $3.0330 per million British thermal units, breaking the low since October 25 for four consecutive days, falling for five days, and falling 13.7% this week after two weeks of continuous increases, reflecting the impact of high temperatures hitting heating demand.

Renkel fell more than 5% in a week, gold recorded the biggest daily decline in nearly four months, the first weekly decline since the Arab-Israeli conflict, and palladium continued to hit a five-year low

London basic metals futures fell across the board on Friday, with Len Nickel falling more than 3%, and continued to lead the decline. It hit a new low since June 2021 for two consecutive days, and Lun Zinc and Lun Xi fell for two consecutive days. Lun Zinc continued to fall from its high level since the end of September. Lun Lu fell to a low level for four to two weeks in a row. Lun lead, which closed on Thursday, fell to a high level since the end of September set on Wednesday. Lun Tong fell by more than 1%, leveling off Thursday's rebound gains. It closed below 8,100 US dollars for the first time this month, falling back to a low level in two weeks.

There were various ups and downs in basic metals this week. Len Nickel led the decline by more than 5%. Lun Copper, which had been rising for two weeks, and Lun Aluminum, which had been rising for three weeks, both fell 1.7%. Meanwhile, Lun zinc rose 1.5%, and Lun lead rose nearly 0.4%, both rising for four weeks, and Lunxi, which had been falling for two weeks, rose 1%.

New York gold futures continued to decline on Friday. COMEX December gold futures closed down 1.63%, the biggest daily decline since April 14, at 1937.7 US dollars/ounce, breaking the low since October 17 set on Tuesday.

In this week, which only closed on Thursday, futures fell by nearly 3.1%, ending four weeks of continuous growth, the first weekly decline in five weeks since the outbreak of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Palladium fell for five days in a row. NYMEX December palladium futures closed down 3% to 978.8 US dollars/ounce, closing below $1,000 for the first time since 2018. This week, they continued to hit a new low since 2008, with a cumulative decline of 13.3% throughout the week.

Spot gold recorded the third worst weekly performance of this year this week


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