share_log

中金风光公用环保24年展望:光伏板块有望迎来供需预期改善 风电整机利润率或呈现改善趋势

CICC Scenery Public Environmental Protection 24-year Outlook: The photovoltaic sector is expected to usher in supply and demand expectations, improve the profit margin of wind power machines, or show an improvement trend

Zhitong Finance ·  11/10/2023 09:50

Bask in the wind and light and wait for spring to come

The Zhitong Finance app learned that CICC released a research report saying that in the context of changes in the pace of financing, technological iterations, and policy support,The photovoltaic sector is expected to usher in an improvement in supply and demand expectations, and the inflection point is gradually approaching.On the demand side, global PV demand is expected to grow by 50-60%/20-30% in 2023/24. On the supply side, policies guide adjustments in the pace of financing, superimposed rapid price adjustments in the industrial chain, or help the industry's supply and demand improve ahead of schedule. The current sector valuation is below the historical average, close to some traditional energy levels.

▍ The main views of CICC are as follows:

Photovoltaics: In the context of changes in the pace of financing, technological iterations, and policy support, the photovoltaic sector is expected to usher in an improvement in supply and demand expectations, and the inflection point is gradually approaching.

On the demand side, global PV demand is expected to grow by 50-60%/20-30% in 2023/24. On the supply side, policies guide adjustments in the pace of financing, superimposed rapid price adjustments in the industrial chain, or help the industry's supply and demand improve ahead of schedule. The current sector valuation is below the historical average, close to some traditional energy levels.

Wind power: The domestic fan lifting capacity is expected to reach 70-80GW in 2024. Offshore wind power and overseas markets are expected to be an important driver of industry growth. Furthermore, the profit margin of wind power machines, which is one of the important factors in suppressing the industry, is expected to show an improvement trend.

As of the end of September 2023, institutional holdings in the wind power equipment sector have fallen back to a low level, which fully reflects the market's concerns about the weak early prosperity of the industry. With the upward trend in industry delivery, the sector is expected to enter the allocation range.

It is recommended to focus on: 1) the submarine cable link and the basic link of offshore tower fans in the growing prosperity of the offshore wind industry chain; 2) the fan parts chain with full production and stable sales prices, benefiting from cost improvements; 3) the overall engine link where short-term profits are under pressure but long-term space is underestimated.

Electricity: Looking ahead to 2024, the power system reform is expected to continue to focus on the stability of the power system and the improvement of the active support capacity of new energy sources, and the main theme of energy security and transformation will continue.

The overall balance between electricity supply and demand is expected. Under trends such as power substitution and digitalization, the growth rate of electricity demand is better than the GDP growth rate. Consolidate the stable foundation of power systems, promote electricity reform and promote the auxiliary service market to better reflect the market value of flexible and adjustable resources. The price of capacity electricity gives reasonable rewards for the insurance, supply and regulation capacity of thermal power, helps guide the spot market to better discover real-time electricity prices, and promotes energy storage and the implementation of new technologies. The carbon market continues to improve, helping to realize the green benefits of new energy.

In order, it is recommended: nuclear power > thermal power > new energy > hydropower.

risks

Prices of raw materials fluctuate, policy implementation falls short of expectations, and downstream demand falls short of expectations.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment